XRP价格触底反弹是假象?链上数据预警:真正底部或仍在更低区域

GateNews
XRP-3.14%

2月6日消息,在经历24小时剧烈下挫后,XRP价格从1.11美元附近快速回升至1.30美元一线,市场开始讨论是否已经触底。但从历史周期与链上数据来看,这次反弹更像是技术性修复,而非趋势反转的信号。

近期,XRP跌破自2025年中以来形成的长期下跌通道,并短暂失守“已实现价格”这一关键成本线(当前约1.47美元)。该指标代表所有流通代币的平均持仓成本,当现价低于这一水平时,多数持有者处于亏损状态。2022年中,XRP也曾跌破该线,当时并未立刻反转,而是在其下方横盘近两年,直到2024年底才真正走强。

当前的折价幅度虽不及当年严重,但仍达到18%至25%。这意味着市场压力正在积累,却尚未完成彻底的情绪出清。长期持有者的NUPL已降至约-0.19,显示多数老持仓进入亏损区,而历史上的周期底部往往需要该指标进一步下探后才会稳定。

链上行为同样偏向谨慎。自2月初以来,衡量沉睡代币流动情况的已花费代币年龄指标大幅飙升,表明大量长期未动的代币正在转移。这类现象通常出现在分发阶段,而非真正的吸筹区。即便在价格反弹后,这一指标仍维持高位,暗示抛压尚未完全释放。

从结构上看,XRP仍运行在破位通道下方,下一个关键支撑位位于0.93美元附近;若该区域失守,历史支撑或下移至0.52美元。上行方面,只有重新站上1.47美元,才有助于修复市场信心,中期改善则需突破1.69美元与1.97美元。

在代币流动性降温、链上亏损逐步消化之前,任何反弹都可能面临新的卖压。市场仍需耐心等待真正的结构重塑。

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