1月29日消息,2025年加密市场迎来史上最大规模的新代币发行潮,但回报却令投资者失望。多项统计显示,新上市代币在一年内大多难以维持正收益,这让“买入并持有”这一传统加密投资策略的有效性遭到前所未有的质疑。
数据机构 CryptoRank 汇总发现,2025年不同平台上线的代币,跌多涨少已成常态。某头部平台在一年内上线100种代币,其中93种价格下跌,中位投资回报率仅为0.22倍;另一家同类型平台上线150种代币,127种走低,中位回报率为0.23倍;而以高频上新著称的平台虽然上线近900个代币,但大多数同样录得亏损。即便在表现相对稳健的平台中,过半新币也难逃回撤命运。这表明,代币走势更多受整体市场环境影响,而非单一平台因素。
CryptoRank 指出,2025年新增代币数量超过1100万个,其中大量项目质量参差不齐,严重稀释了市场资金与注意力。这种供给洪流削弱了被动投资的成功概率。与此同时,2026年1月加密货币总市值已回落至3万亿美元以下,较去年高点减少逾1万亿美元,行业仍承压。
分析师 Aporia 认为,早期市场尚未成熟时,长期持有或能分享行业红利,但如今投资者需与基金、算法及高度投机的项目方竞争,“持有本身不再等同于策略”。前行业高管 CZ 也指出,买入并持有并非对所有代币都适用,只有少数高质量项目才具备长期价值。
在代币快速更替、竞争加剧的背景下,这一轮数据为投资者提供了重要警示:在当前加密货币市场环境中,筛选能力与风险管理,或许比单纯的长期持有更为关键。
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