**RRPGAw**
用戶暫無簡介
**RRPGAw**
【4月3日期權交割數據】
2.8萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.54，最大痛點68000美元，名義價值18億美元。
15.6萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.73，最大痛點2075美元，名義價值3.2億美元。
今天是季度交割日後的第一次周交割，比特幣期權的市佔率又上了另一個新台階，已經明顯超過80%了。期限方面，目前持倉最多的4月底和6月底，占比都在23%左右，以太坊的集中度更高，6月期權占比最大，約有30%，這也表明比特幣期權的交易活躍度更高。
行情比較弱，小反彈會立刻跌回66K，加密貨幣的交易熱度仍然偏低，而且出現了多個DeFi項目暴雷的典型熊市特徵。
從主要期權數據看，比特幣主要期限IV跌破51%，ETH的主要期限IV也下降到70%以下，RV也在繼續下降，VRP周內上升，但是目前又跌回了零軸附近。Skew小幅下降，但幅度可以忽略不計。
今年一季度比特幣在價格和熱度兩方面表現都很差，二季度第一周表現也很差，信心的重建可能還需要時間和資金的支持，目前各項指標都指明了熊市特徵。
查看原文2.8萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.54，最大痛點68000美元，名義價值18億美元。
15.6萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.73，最大痛點2075美元，名義價值3.2億美元。
今天是季度交割日後的第一次周交割，比特幣期權的市佔率又上了另一個新台階，已經明顯超過80%了。期限方面，目前持倉最多的4月底和6月底，占比都在23%左右，以太坊的集中度更高，6月期權占比最大，約有30%，這也表明比特幣期權的交易活躍度更高。
行情比較弱，小反彈會立刻跌回66K，加密貨幣的交易熱度仍然偏低，而且出現了多個DeFi項目暴雷的典型熊市特徵。
從主要期權數據看，比特幣主要期限IV跌破51%，ETH的主要期限IV也下降到70%以下，RV也在繼續下降，VRP周內上升，但是目前又跌回了零軸附近。Skew小幅下降，但幅度可以忽略不計。
今年一季度比特幣在價格和熱度兩方面表現都很差，二季度第一周表現也很差，信心的重建可能還需要時間和資金的支持，目前各項指標都指明了熊市特徵。
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CryptoSpecto
:
良好的資訊 🥰:查看更多
今天日期權交易量佔到了總交易量的近30%，其中主要以明日到期的大宗鐵鷹組合為核心，名義價值超過7000BTC，押注明天BTC能夠突破68000美元。
如此集中的大宗交易在最近的行情中比較少見，權利金使用不算多，但是直接押注20小時到期的期權還是比較大膽的。大宗在這種情況是最值得觀察的跟單的，大手筆往往意味著強烈的觀點。
如此集中的大宗交易在最近的行情中比較少見，權利金使用不算多，但是直接押注20小時到期的期權還是比較大膽的。大宗在這種情況是最值得觀察的跟單的，大手筆往往意味著強烈的觀點。
BTC0.54%
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【3月27日期權交割數據】
6.8萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.56，最大痛點74000美元，名義價值130億美元。
37萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.56，最大痛點2250美元，名義價值21.2億美元。
今天是季度交割日，比特幣和以太坊約有約36%的期權到期，本周有大量期權進行了移倉，峰值時有超過40%的期權總持倉占比。而且由於是大交割日，call的比例很高，PCR僅有0.56。
儘管行情有了波動，但是比特幣的交易熱度仍然偏低，從主要期權數據看，比特幣主要期限IV在51%，ETH的主要期限IV在70%，RV繼續下降使得VRP持續上升，在本周上半周15D VRP達到近20%。
今年一季度比特幣在價格和熱度兩方面表現都很差，市場信心也不足，期望二季度會有好轉。
查看原文6.8萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.56，最大痛點74000美元，名義價值130億美元。
37萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.56，最大痛點2250美元，名義價值21.2億美元。
今天是季度交割日，比特幣和以太坊約有約36%的期權到期，本周有大量期權進行了移倉，峰值時有超過40%的期權總持倉占比。而且由於是大交割日，call的比例很高，PCR僅有0.56。
儘管行情有了波動，但是比特幣的交易熱度仍然偏低，從主要期權數據看，比特幣主要期限IV在51%，ETH的主要期限IV在70%，RV繼續下降使得VRP持續上升，在本周上半周15D VRP達到近20%。
今年一季度比特幣在價格和熱度兩方面表現都很差，市場信心也不足，期望二季度會有好轉。
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Q1季度大交割日逼近，明天將迎來本年度第一季度最大的期權交割，近40%的期權面臨到期。
1. 核心交割數據
BTC 最大痛點 (Max Pain): 目前錨定在75000美元，以目前情況看已經無望。看跌/看漲比率 (P/C Ratio): 維持在 0.6附近，相對較低，說明看跌期權的交易量較低，但整體情緒依然偏空。
2. 波動率 (IV) 預警：IV Crush 即將到來，目前臨近到期日的前端隱含波動率（Front-end IV）依然堅挺。但明天交割一結束，極大概率會迎來劇烈的 IV Crush（波動率暴跌）。 現在做短期期權的買方極其吃虧（Theta損耗嚴重），而賣方有明顯的優勢。
3. 巨鯨與大宗交：今天 Deribit 上的大宗數據顯示，聰明錢（Smart Money）正在瘋狂進行展期操作（Rolling）。很多機構平掉了明天的到期倉位，並大量建倉了 6 月和 9 月遠期虛值看漲期權（OTM Calls）。
大家怎麼看？這次季度交割，你覺得大盤還有希望嗎
#Crypto #Options
1. 核心交割數據
BTC 最大痛點 (Max Pain): 目前錨定在75000美元，以目前情況看已經無望。看跌/看漲比率 (P/C Ratio): 維持在 0.6附近，相對較低，說明看跌期權的交易量較低，但整體情緒依然偏空。
2. 波動率 (IV) 預警：IV Crush 即將到來，目前臨近到期日的前端隱含波動率（Front-end IV）依然堅挺。但明天交割一結束，極大概率會迎來劇烈的 IV Crush（波動率暴跌）。 現在做短期期權的買方極其吃虧（Theta損耗嚴重），而賣方有明顯的優勢。
3. 巨鯨與大宗交：今天 Deribit 上的大宗數據顯示，聰明錢（Smart Money）正在瘋狂進行展期操作（Rolling）。很多機構平掉了明天的到期倉位，並大量建倉了 6 月和 9 月遠期虛值看漲期權（OTM Calls）。
大家怎麼看？這次季度交割，你覺得大盤還有希望嗎
#Crypto #Options
BTC0.54%
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Circle and Coinbase's decline is actually quite noteworthy. The new legislation has restricted stablecoin revenues, and frankly, the crypto industry doesn't have many genuinely viable products to begin with—and now stablecoins are getting heavily cut down.
If this industry can't build and construct something meaningful during this bear market over the next couple of years, there may not be another cycle after this. During bear markets, various costs are low, artificial hype is minimal, and it's actually quite suitable for building. Plus, products are easier to launch and more readily accepted
查看原文If this industry can't build and construct something meaningful during this bear market over the next couple of years, there may not be another cycle after this. During bear markets, various costs are low, artificial hype is minimal, and it's actually quite suitable for building. Plus, products are easier to launch and more readily accepted
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BTC rebounded and remained oscillating at 71,000 USD, with the risk of a decline temporarily eased. IV across all major tenors showed a clear decline, with BTC medium-to-short-term IV down more than 5% from its peak and down more than 3% compared to two days ago. ETH medium-to-short-term IV declined more than 8% from its peak and down more than 5% compared to two days ago.
Skew staged a broad rebound, with many bearish put options established during the crisis being closed out, and bearish and bullish forces returning to a rebalanced state. This Friday is the quarterly settlement day, with mor
查看原文Skew staged a broad rebound, with many bearish put options established during the crisis being closed out, and bearish and bullish forces returning to a rebalanced state. This Friday is the quarterly settlement day, with mor
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川普：稍晚一些我會和哈梅內伊通電話
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This week lacks significant macro data. The only important macro event currently is the ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which occurred nearly a month ago—the trajectory of this escalation remains uncertain.
U.S. stocks have performed poorly over the past week, with major stocks and indices showing clear declines. Crypto has been affected and dragged down accordingly, effectively breaking through the 70,000 USD level. Implied volatility across all major option expiries is rising, Skew is declining across the board, and the market is concerned about crisis escalat
查看原文U.S. stocks have performed poorly over the past week, with major stocks and indices showing clear declines. Crypto has been affected and dragged down accordingly, effectively breaking through the 70,000 USD level. Implied volatility across all major option expiries is rising, Skew is declining across the board, and the market is concerned about crisis escalat
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Over the weekend, Trump the great leader pulled off another stunt. This morning I woke up wanting to check what impact it had on US stocks, only to find that the stock market futures hadn't opened yet. I opened my crypto app to check the prices of Nvidia and Tesla.
Crypto efficiency will definitely comprehensively revolutionize the existing financial markets. The traditional market system is too cumbersome. Whether it's product smoothness, transparency, or rules, crypto beats traditional finance by several streets.
查看原文Crypto efficiency will definitely comprehensively revolutionize the existing financial markets. The traditional market system is too cumbersome. Whether it's product smoothness, transparency, or rules, crypto beats traditional finance by several streets.
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【March 20th Options Expiration Data】
23,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 0.88, max pain point at $70,000, notional value of $1.6 billion.
176,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 1.04, max pain point at $2,150, notional value of $370 million.
The crypto market's current rally has come to an end, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $70,000 round number. In the past week, $75,000 has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of month-end options positioned at this price. The breakout ultimately failed and pulled back to around $70,000.
Next Friday is the
查看原文23,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 0.88, max pain point at $70,000, notional value of $1.6 billion.
176,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 1.04, max pain point at $2,150, notional value of $370 million.
The crypto market's current rally has come to an end, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $70,000 round number. In the past week, $75,000 has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of month-end options positioned at this price. The breakout ultimately failed and pulled back to around $70,000.
Next Friday is the
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The U.S. stock market continues to have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies. After 18:00 last night, major U.S. stocks experienced notable declines, which directly dragged Bitcoin down from 74000 to 71000. This downturn also transmitted to the altcoin market.
However, the rebound period from this round of selling was extremely short, and by this morning, prices had already fallen to lower levels than yesterday afternoon.
Despite Powell's hawkish remarks warning of inflation risks from regional conflicts, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not cut rates this year, the market has already pr
However, the rebound period from this round of selling was extremely short, and by this morning, prices had already fallen to lower levels than yesterday afternoon.
Despite Powell's hawkish remarks warning of inflation risks from regional conflicts, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not cut rates this year, the market has already pr
BTC0.54%
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End-of-month quarterly options now account for over 40% of open positions, with $75,000 call option contracts representing over 5%, marking an unprecedented concentration level with everyone betting on $75,000.
Gamma walls and gamma concentration mean a convergence of market sentiment. When everyone is on the same vehicle, either they collectively push the market in the desired direction, or everyone crashes together.
The current Bitcoin price is at $73,500, very close to $75,000, and we're right at the upper band of a two-month consolidation. All the elements are aligned. Whether we can break
查看原文Gamma walls and gamma concentration mean a convergence of market sentiment. When everyone is on the same vehicle, either they collectively push the market in the desired direction, or everyone crashes together.
The current Bitcoin price is at $73,500, very close to $75,000, and we're right at the upper band of a two-month consolidation. All the elements are aligned. Whether we can break
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After the weekly settlement, BTC surged significantly and has approached $74,000, nearing the upper band of the consolidation range since February.
The options market has shown a lukewarm response. The implied volatility of BTC doomsday options remains below 50%, and ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major maturities.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money contracts at month-end. For a 5% price movement, this is relatively low
查看原文The options market has shown a lukewarm response. The implied volatility of BTC doomsday options remains below 50%, and ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major maturities.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money contracts at month-end. For a 5% price movement, this is relatively low
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【March 13 Options Expiration Data】
26,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 0.9, max pain at 69,000 USD, notional value of 1.8 billion USD.
182,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 1.21, max pain at 2,000 USD, notional value of 3.8 billion USD.
The crypto market continued to rebound this week, with Bitcoin reclaiming the 70,000 USD round number again, though rebounding momentum is declining. From the options market data, IV for short-to-medium-term options this week decreased while IV for medium-to-long-term options increased, though the magnitudes are both minimal. BTC's primary
查看原文26,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 0.9, max pain at 69,000 USD, notional value of 1.8 billion USD.
182,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 1.21, max pain at 2,000 USD, notional value of 3.8 billion USD.
The crypto market continued to rebound this week, with Bitcoin reclaiming the 70,000 USD round number again, though rebounding momentum is declining. From the options market data, IV for short-to-medium-term options this week decreased while IV for medium-to-long-term options increased, though the magnitudes are both minimal. BTC's primary
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The March 312 incident seems like something from the last century now. Back then, implied volatility soared as high as 500%, and what limited that implied volatility wasn't market conditions but exchange rules.
Six years have passed, and the options market has become very mature. It's no longer the wild west era of those days, and implied volatility has been maintained below 60% long-term, far from the market conditions of over 100% back then.
However, the options market has grown from trading volumes of hundreds of millions of dollars per day back then to tens of billions of dollars per day t
查看原文Six years have passed, and the options market has become very mature. It's no longer the wild west era of those days, and implied volatility has been maintained below 60% long-term, far from the market conditions of over 100% back then.
However, the options market has grown from trading volumes of hundreds of millions of dollars per day back then to tens of billions of dollars per day t
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比特幣重回71500美元上方，目前的危機解除，各主要期限隱含波動率都在快速下降，目前回落到一週前水平。
剛剛反轉回正的VRP，快速轉為負值。一日內，月度VRP從正2%變為負9%，持續擴大的負溢價趨勢也說明市場對未來的波動程度預期小於當下。
危機似乎已然過去，加密市場今年一季度的極端弱勢走勢仍未扭轉，市場信心很弱。
剛剛反轉回正的VRP，快速轉為負值。一日內，月度VRP從正2%變為負9%，持續擴大的負溢價趨勢也說明市場對未來的波動程度預期小於當下。
危機似乎已然過去，加密市場今年一季度的極端弱勢走勢仍未扭轉，市場信心很弱。
BTC0.54%
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大宗看跌今天占比30%，總計名義價值3.36億美元，主要成交以週末到期的末日淺虧值看跌期權和月底的60000美元以下看跌期權為主，市場情緒較為脆弱，一旦進入回調，看跌力量就會明顯增強。
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【3月6日期權交割數據】
3.2萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為1.69，最大痛點69000美元，名義價值23億美元。
18.4萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.85，最大痛點1950美元，名義價值3.8億美元。
加密市場本周迎來反彈，比特幣已經站穩7萬美元整數關口，目前有望衝擊75000美元。但是從期權市場數據看，賣出看漲期權成為近兩天的交易主流，儘管價格還在上漲，但是勢頭已經放緩。
明天有佔總持倉7%的期權到期，幾乎是近期最低水平，同時比特幣的持倉佔比達到近期的峰值。得益於近期的反彈，本周比特幣和以太坊的隱含波動率有所上升，BTC的主要期限IV在55%，ETH的主要期限IV在75%。
成交方面，大宗看漲期權佔據絕對主力地位，從主要的期權數據看，Skew也全面反彈，市場情緒還是有明顯好轉。
但市場仍在熊市，目前追多的性價比一般，底部尚未確認。
查看原文3.2萬張BTC期權到期，Put Call Ratio為1.69，最大痛點69000美元，名義價值23億美元。
18.4萬張ETH期權到期，Put Call Ratio為0.85，最大痛點1950美元，名義價值3.8億美元。
加密市場本周迎來反彈，比特幣已經站穩7萬美元整數關口，目前有望衝擊75000美元。但是從期權市場數據看，賣出看漲期權成為近兩天的交易主流，儘管價格還在上漲，但是勢頭已經放緩。
明天有佔總持倉7%的期權到期，幾乎是近期最低水平，同時比特幣的持倉佔比達到近期的峰值。得益於近期的反彈，本周比特幣和以太坊的隱含波動率有所上升，BTC的主要期限IV在55%，ETH的主要期限IV在75%。
成交方面，大宗看漲期權佔據絕對主力地位，從主要的期權數據看，Skew也全面反彈，市場情緒還是有明顯好轉。
但市場仍在熊市，目前追多的性價比一般，底部尚未確認。
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儘管今天幣價再創反彈新高，但是主要期限期權和到期日期權的隱含波動率IV均未出現升高，相較突破7萬時反而下降。
近一周VRP大幅下降，各期限都下降了近20%，這種背離一般預示著機構認為反彈告一段落，動能下降。
查看原文近一周VRP大幅下降，各期限都下降了近20%，這種背離一般預示著機構認為反彈告一段落，動能下降。
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