On March 24, Goldman Sachs stated that due to soaring oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. The energy price shock, combined with the tightening of financial conditions caused by Middle East conflicts, and the gradual fading of major tax law effects passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs' chief economist Hatzius to raise his benchmark forecast for year-end unemployment rate to 4.6%.

Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September and December. The firm also expects U.S. GDP growth in the second half of this year to be below trend, with annualized growth forecast between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to ongoing disruptions in energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for this year earlier on Monday. The firm stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth rate by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even increase threefold. #Gate13周年全球庆典