Macro + Derivatives: Risk-off sentiment peaks, bearish sentiment hits new phase high. External macro environment completely suppresses risk assets, becoming the biggest stumbling block for BTC gains: Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, international oil prices surge, directly pushing up US inflation expectations; CME rate tools show market probability of Fed rate hike in April surged directly from 0% to 12%, rate hike expectations warm up, forming deadly suppression on high-risk assets like crypto.

Options market bearish sentiment explodes, put/call open interest ratio climbs to 0.77, hitting new high since June 2021! Large numbers of traders frantically buy put options for downside protection, fully illustrating how intense institutional and whale concerns about subsequent declines are.