The market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy have undergone a significant adjustment. According to the latest data, the US December core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, and rose 2.6% year-on-year. This level has already matched the lowest point in four years, and is even lower than market forecasts previously.

This weakening trend in inflation data has strengthened traders' belief that the Federal Reserve will not maintain high interest rates for a long time. From the market pricing, investors have generally reinforced their expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate at least two rate cuts by 2026.

This change in expectations is being reflected in asset prices in real time. Especially, the precious metals sector shows a clear upward momentum, which reflects the market consensus that a rate cut cycle is imminent. From now until mid-year, the window for rate cuts seems to be gradually becoming clearer.