Trump thúc ép hạ lãi suất đằng sau: Tính độc lập của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang đang đối mặt với thử thách chính trị chưa từng có

Trump once again pressures the Federal Reserve. After the December inflation data was released, the U.S. President publicly praised the figures and directly suggested that Fed Chair Powell should consider cutting interest rates. This is not an isolated incident but part of an escalating political confrontation—according to the latest news, the Department of Justice has even launched a criminal investigation into Powell. In this silent power struggle, the independence of the Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented test.

Trump’s “Multiple Approaches” to Pressure for Rate Cuts

From economic data to direct pressure

Trump’s praise of the December inflation data seems mild but is actually a clever political expression. When he says “inflation data is good” and simultaneously recommends a rate cut, he is effectively sending a signal to the market and the Fed: inflation is sufficiently under control, and there is no reason for the central bank to maintain high interest rates. This way of framing is more damaging than direct criticism because it uses “facts” to support the “conclusion.”

According to the latest news, the conflict between Trump and Powell is far beyond mere words. The Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into Powell—ostensibly related to the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters—has been stated by Powell himself to be connected to his refusal to meet Trump’s demand for a rate cut. The symbolic significance of this investigation far exceeds its practical implications; it sends a clear pressure signal to Powell.

Powell’s “tough stance” response

Powell’s attitude remains firm. He publicly states that the Federal Reserve makes policy based on economic data and reality, not on the President’s preferences. He also explicitly states that he will not succumb to political pressure or intimidation. This stance represents the Fed’s commitment to independence but also suggests that this confrontation could escalate further.

Broader Political Context

Trump’s calls for rate cuts are not baseless. According to the latest news, the Trump administration is pushing for several policy changes:

• Trade negotiations: The US and India are resolving disagreements, including long-delayed trade agreements, which could impact economic growth expectations
• Geopolitical tensions: Frictions in US-EU relations (Greenland issue), escalation in Middle East (Iran), all increasing market risks
• Cryptocurrency policy: Cardano founder Hoskinson criticizes the White House’s crypto affairs chief, calling for the advancement of crypto market structure legislation

In this context, Trump’s push for rate cuts is not only an economic consideration but also part of a broader policy framework. He hopes to stimulate economic growth and support asset prices through rate cuts, thereby bolstering his governance achievements.

Chain Reaction in the Markets

Impact on different assets

Changes in expectations of Fed rate cuts will produce multiple effects:

According to the latest news, BiyaPay analysts point out that the current market has shifted from a single macro factor to a “geopolitical + policy” layered drive. This means investors need to pay attention to multiple dimensions such as Fed policy, geopolitical conflicts, and trade negotiations simultaneously.

Safe-haven capital flows

Rising geopolitical risks are changing investor asset allocations. According to the latest news, safe-haven funds are flowing back into precious metals markets. This reflects market concerns over uncertainty—uncertain whether the Fed will yield to political pressure or whether geopolitical tensions will worsen further.

Key Points to Watch Next

Change in the Fed’s stance

Powell’s current position is “not to yield,” but will all members of the Federal Open Market Committee be so firm? If Trump’s pressure continues to escalate, could there be disagreements within the Fed? This will directly influence future policy directions.

Specific content of December CPI data

Although Trump praised the data, what exactly do the inflation indicators show? If the data indeed indicates a continued decline in inflation, the Fed might have more room to cut rates. This will be a key factor in determining whether the Fed will actually cut rates in the near future.

Follow-up developments of the Department of Justice investigation

Is this investigation symbolic pressure or a real threat? If the investigation intensifies, political pressure on Powell will sharply increase. This could ultimately shake the Fed’s independent decision-making.

Summary

Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve has risen from verbal to judicial levels, which is rare in U.S. history. Trump aims to support the economy and asset prices through rate cuts, while Powell is making a final stand to defend the Fed’s independence. The outcome of this confrontation will not only influence the Fed’s next policy move but could also reshape the power structure of U.S. financial decision-making.

Investors should closely monitor three aspects: whether there will be a shift in the Fed’s internal stance, whether CPI data truly supports rate cuts, and whether the Department of Justice investigation becomes a political bargaining chip. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties, market volatility is expected to remain high.