Tonight's US CPI data release is the key catalyst that will influence the short-term market rhythm. Historically, after the data is announced, there is usually a 20-30 minute rapid market movement, during which institutions and retail investors react quickly.

The underlying logic is quite clear: CPI data → inflation expectation adjustment → Federal Reserve policy outlook → capital flow and market sentiment. This forms a complete chain, with each link affecting the next.

Market consensus expects the US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate to be 2.7%. Based on this figure, there are two possible scenarios:

**If the data exceeds 2.7%**, it indicates that inflation is cooling down more slowly than expected, and stickiness may be stronger than anticipated. This will delay the market's optimistic expectations for the Fed to continue cutting rates, which is short-term bearish. The US dollar may strengthen, and as risk assets, cryptocurrencies are more likely to face pressure.

**If the data reaches or is below 2.7%**, it signals a gradual approach toward the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing confidence that the rate cut cycle will continue. Risk appetite will increase, and the window for crypto market rebound will open.

As the release time approaches, market sentiment has already become noticeably tense, and increased volatility is almost certain.

For traders who enjoy chasing short-term opportunities, now is the time to test your position management skills. Those holding positions might consider reducing leverage; those not yet in the market can wait until the data is released and then enter based on market reactions. Ultimately, protecting your principal is the key to having the opportunity to continue playing in the market.

It is especially important to emphasize that in the first few minutes after the data is released, do not blindly chase the market or panic sell. Tonight's focus is not on betting on which direction the data will move, but on how the market will reprice this critical rate cut expectation story after receiving the data. Managing your position well can not only help you avoid risks but also maintain an active stance amid volatility.