Thị trường chứng khoán châu Á mất máu! Chỉ số MSCI châu Á giảm mạnh nhất trong 6 năm, rút lui 11 tỷ USD vốn ngoại

Do to Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy, rising oil prices threaten inflation prospects, reversing the “sell US, buy Asia” trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index experienced its largest weekly decline in six years, and global funds are withdrawing from Asian markets at the fastest pace in nearly four years. This article is sourced from Wall Street Journal, organized, translated, and written by Foresight News.
（Previous summary: Korean stocks plummeted 20% in two days, the worst in Asia. Why?)
（Additional background: Trump’s tariffs ruled illegal! U.S. courts order “prohibition of implementation,” White House quickly appeals, Asian markets cheer early trading)

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• “Sell US, buy Asia” trade reverses, risk reassessment becomes main theme
• Oil price sensitivity rises: Asia’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy supply is revalued
• Stock and currency decline together, volatility and deleveraging concerns heat up
• Institutional adjustments: Morgan Stanley shifts to defensive, Citibank waits for stability signals

Global funds are withdrawing from Asian emerging market stocks at the fastest pace in nearly four years. Wall Street Journal previously reported that Asian markets such as Japan and Korea heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports. Escalating Iran conflicts trigger risk aversion, prompting investors to reprice risks quickly, transmitting to stock and currency markets.

According to Bloomberg data, global funds net sold about $11 billion of emerging Asian stocks excluding Mainland China this week, likely the largest weekly outflow since March 2022. Korea around $1.6 billion, India about $1.3 billion.

Capital outflows combined with a sharp drop in risk appetite have caused regional stock markets to plunge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell over 6% this week, marking its largest weekly decline in nearly six years, and the biggest underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since April. Korea’s Kospi index experienced a record single-day drop, with some markets halting trading multiple times.

Morgan Stanley strategists, due to Iran war-related risks, adopt a more cautious stance on Asian and emerging market stocks, downgrading India and UAE from overweight to neutral, citing Asia’s “severe dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, refined products, and LNG,” and noting that markets underestimate supply chain risks.

“Sell US, buy Asia” trade reverses, risk reassessment becomes main theme

This recent outflow marks a reversal of a high-yield strategy—“sell US, buy Asia.” The strategy bets on a weakening dollar, mild inflation, and AI-driven demand for regional chip stocks, rotating funds from overvalued US stocks to Asian equities.

However, the Iran situation has shaken these key assumptions. Gary Tan, fund manager at Allspring Global Investments, said investors previously bought Asian stocks based on expectations of a weakening dollar and benign inflation, but Iran’s conflict challenges both assumptions. Markets are now assessing whether the dollar’s long-term strength and high oil prices could reignite inflation pressures.

Oil price sensitivity rises: Asia’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy supply is revalued

One reason for deeper retreat in Asian assets is their relatively high dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil. Large fuel imports must pass through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, and escalating conflicts increase supply chain risk premiums. Rising oil prices heighten inflation fears, especially as many central banks are just beginning to build confidence in inflation cooling.

Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia are among the world’s largest oil importers, while the U.S. has become a net exporter. This difference reinforces the view that Asia, as a “net importer” region, is more vulnerable to inflation and policy constraints under oil shocks.

Stock and currency decline together, volatility and deleveraging concerns heat up

Driven by risk aversion, the dollar has strengthened, suppressing emerging market currencies. Markets focus especially on net oil-importing currencies and their impact on domestic inflation. Korea’s won hit its biggest single-day decline since 2009 on Tuesday, with investors wary of passive deleveraging and forced liquidations.

Meanwhile, volatility indicators are rising. JPMorgan’s emerging market FX volatility index surged above G7 comparable levels this week, ending a long period of being below G7 levels, highlighting rapid risk re-pricing.

Institutional adjustments: Morgan Stanley shifts to defensive, Citibank waits for stability signals

On the strategic front, Morgan Stanley strategists, citing Iran war risks, adopt a more cautious stance on Asian and emerging stocks, downgrading India and UAE from overweight to neutral, and upgrading Saudi Arabia from reduction to neutral.

Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner wrote in reports, “We remain defensive,” emphasizing Asia’s “severe dependence on Middle Eastern crude, refined products, and LNG,” and noting insufficient market risk assessment.

Citi emphasizes pace management. Luis Costa and others stated in reports that risk exposure has been significantly reduced in recent days, but if stability signs emerge, they hope to rebuild long positions in emerging markets. Although oil prices show “initial signs of stabilization,” it is premature to assert that prices will follow the 2022 trend again.

Beyond Middle Eastern tensions, investors will also watch tonight’s U.S. non-farm payroll data for clues on Fed rate paths. The re-pricing of dollar strength and global risk appetite may determine whether this “withdrawal” in Asian assets is a phase or a longer-term rebalancing.