US Unemployment Data Comes in Below Expectations, Sending a Balancing Signal to Markets
The latest US labor market data revealed an unemployment rate of 4.3%, while market expectations were at 4.4%. Although limited, the data came in below expectations, indicating that the labor market remains relatively resilient.
The unemployment rate is considered one of the most critical indicators of economic activity. The lower-than-expected data suggests that labor demand remains strong and that the economic slowdown is progressing in a controlled manner. This is interpreted as limiting the risk of a sudden contraction, particularly in terms of growth.
On the other hand, the continued strength of the labor market has a dual effect on inflation dynamics. Maintaining high levels of employment supports consumer demand, while continued wage pressures may make it difficult for inflation to decline at the desired pace.
At this point, the data is critically important for the direction of Federal Reserve policies. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate may cause the Fed to be more cautious about cutting interest rates. Because the strong employment structure indicates that economic activity is still supported and that premature easing of tight monetary policy could pose a risk.
From a financial market perspective, such data generally leads to complex pricing. On the one hand, the preservation of economic strength stands out as a positive factor for risky assets, while on the other hand, the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period may put pressure on the market.
In conclusion, the lower-than-expected US unemployment data shows that the economy maintains its resilient structure and suggests that a cautious stance in the monetary policy outlook may continue. This data indicates that a balanced and data-driven process will continue in the markets, rather than a sudden change in direction.
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Gold Market
On Thursday, gold prices sharply fell amid a stronger US dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes: spot gold dropped by 2.2% to 4,651.35 dollars per ounce, and American gold futures declined by 2.8% to 4,679.70 dollars. US President Trump said he would continue attacks on Iran, promising to “send Iran back to the Stone Age,” which pushed oil prices higher, intensified concerns about inflation, and reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, putting pressure on non-yielding gold. Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, spot gold prices have fallen by 12%. Market sentiment also deteriorated due to a sharp reduction in the gold reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey—over the past two weeks by more than 118 tons (on last week — a decline of 69.1 tons to 702.5 tons). On the demand side, amid falling gold prices in India, a premium over the spot price was recorded for the first time in two months. Among other precious metals: spot silver fell by 3.7% to 72.38 dollars, platinum rose by 0.9% to 1,981.95 dollars, and palladium fell by 1.9% to 1,497.00 dollars.

According to the APP "Golden Shape" report, U.S. President Trump signed a statement on Thursday aimed at adjusting national tariffs for security reasons on the import of steel, aluminum, and copper (Section 232 tariffs). This adjustment is intended to lower tariff rates on derivative metals, simplify declaration procedures, and prevent undervaluation of import values.
The statement says that the U.S. will maintain a 50% tariff on imports of such bulk goods as steel, aluminum, and copper, but now this rate will be applied to the price paid by American consumers. The main changes concern derivative products, where a threshold metal content is introduced for more accurate duty assessment.
Details of the new rules
Under the new rules, if the steel, aluminum, or copper content in a derivative product by weight is less than 15%, the U.S. will cancel the previously applicable 50% tariff, effectively exempting such goods from duties. This measure is intended to exempt products with very low metal content, such as perfume bottles with aluminum caps or dental floss boxes with miniature steel blades.
For derivative products with metal content exceeding 15%, a reduced tariff rate of 25% will be applied, but this rate will be calculated based on the total value of the imported product, not just the metal content. Thus, for products like washing machines or gas stoves, where steel is a main component, the duty will be 25% of the total value.
Meanwhile, bulk goods made of steel, aluminum, and copper will retain a high 50% duty, calculated on the entire sale price. According to officials, these measures could generate additional revenue from tariffs and also simplify customs declaration, eliminating opportunities to evade tariffs by undervaluing metal content.

The structure of long-term BTC holdings is seeing its largest divergence in 10 years: the share of exchange “whales” exceeds 60%. In the first quarter of 2026, the Bitcoin market appears outwardly calm—price continues to stay below 70,000 dollars, and the Fear and Greed Index has been in the “extreme fear” zone for an extended period. However, the data beneath the surface point to profound structural changes. According to an SEC disclosure, Strategy (, formerly MicroStrategy ), increased its holdings by more than 88,000 BTC in the first quarter, and its total portfolio already stands at about 762,000 coins; the average acquisition price is approximately 75,696 dollars. At the same time, the “whale” coefficient on exchanges rose to above 60%, setting a decade-high, while retail investor participation fell to the lowest level over the same period.
On-chain data provide a clearer picture. The share of short-term holders—especially the group with a holding period of one week to one month—has fallen to 3.98%. Looking back at previous cycles, when this metric dropped below 4%, the market was typically near the bottom or directly in the bottom zone. Long-term holders control a larger portion of the supply, intraday trading is declining, and speculative demand is weakening—suggesting the market is shifting from high-frequency “trading games” to structural accumulation.
The essence of this divergence is a systematic transfer of биткоин liquidity from retail to institutions. биткоин does not disappear—it undergoes a structural change of ownership: the rise in the exchange “whale” ratio indicates that the original large crypto holders are selling; at the same time, publicly traded companies led by Strategy increased their net position by approximately 62,000 BTC during the same period. While individual investors are exiting the asset, institutions continue to buy at a steady pace—the ownership structure of биткоин is being rewritten.