Late at night, the world is filled with joyous voices

Most markets around the world have welcomed a great day, with cheers everywhere:
- The U.S. stock market is rising across the board, with the S&P 500 index briefly touching 6100 points, setting a new record high;
- Gold has risen for three consecutive trading days and is getting closer to its historical high.
- At the same time, the dollar and US bond yields also rose in sync. These markets that seemingly cannot rise at the same time are rising at the same time.
1. So far, the global market has given an optimistic response to Trump's second term, but concerns still exist—the US dollar index remains above 108, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4.6%. Earlier this week, the selling of the US dollar was due to long positions being closed out, rather than a bearish frenzy.
2. Trump has expanded the scope of tariff threats. Trump stated that the EU's attitude towards the United States is hostile and will face tariffs. Trump also conveyed a message to Putin that if a peaceful agreement cannot be reached, I will implement tariffs and sanctions. The financial markets remain indifferent, as investors still believe that Trump's tariff threats are for negotiation, ignoring the risk of escalation. As the final deadline of February 1 approaches, the market sentiment will change.
3. Today the market will calm down a bit and evaluate three key events (all in Beijing time).
· First, at 09:00, there is a news conference in China on "promoting long-term funds to enter the market and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market". The intention behind holding this conference before the stock market opens is self-evident.
However, immediately following this, at 10:00, the first interview program after Trump's inauguration will be broadcast. This is a lengthy interview that will cover a wide range of topics and have a more extensive impact on global markets. The program will be broadcast during A-share trading hours.
· At 21:30 in the evening, the market will welcome the first important economic data of the week - the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week. The data's importance level is not very high, but it carries great symbolic significance as it is the first factor outside of Trump to impact the market this week.
In contrast, next week is even more important, not only the "February 1" mentioned by Trump, but also the Fed's interest rate decision, and the "January effect" depends on next week.
The current suspicion is that it is not possible for a market to rise at the same time "rise at the same time", then there will always be a market trend that is wrong and there is a risk of correction.