Waiting for Monday, the storm is coming.

Global investors anxiously await Monday, ahead of the storm.
On Monday (January 13), the market will not only continue to digest the impact of non-farm data, but also hype the upcoming economic data to be released on Wednesday (January 15), so the volatility of the global market next Monday will be similar to this Friday.
2. The decline of Asian stock markets next Monday may present four different scenarios, each with different "omens":
· If the decline is within 1%: if the US stocks close higher again on the same day, the drop in the Asian stock market on Monday may only be a "one-day market".
· The decline is between 1%-1.5%: further guidance from the US stocks is still needed for the future market.
· The decline is between 1.5% and 2%: If it reaches this level, the potential decline in Asian stock markets in the future may be greater than that of the US stock market.
· A drop of more than 2%: Even if the US stock market stabilizes, Asian markets may still face continued selling pressure.
The U.S. stock market itself is in a "not yet finished falling" mode, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index closing near their daily lows, still falling until the last minute, which doesn't seem like a digestion of negative sentiment.
3. There is a glimmer of hope in the Chinese market compared to other markets. After the Friday closing, the Ministry of Finance and the China Securities Regulatory Commission made statements, which had a certain calming effect on market sentiment. However, the market closed below 3200 points on Friday, and we originally expected the daily decline to be around 0.5%. In reality, it exceeded 1%, which may bring additional negative sentiment to the market.
4. Now the market has lost consensus on the next move of the Fed, and Wall Street is currently divided into four factions:
- The first interest rate cut in June, with two interest rate cuts throughout the year (represented by JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs)
- The first interest rate cut in September, one interest rate cut for the year (priced in the swap market)
- No more interest rate cuts (represented by Gate.io)
- Possible interest rate increase (represented by the Bank of America)
5. Next week will be the final week before Trump's inauguration ceremony, and the market may see a need for concentrated position adjustments, which may further intensify market volatility.