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A big dump, a gift to the world
Start respecting winter
Global markets closed with a sense of unease. Because this is not an end, but a worrying beginning.
First of all, the three major stock indexes in the US fell by more than 1.5%, and the intraday decline was even greater, which is enough to cause a stir in the Asian market next Monday.
The two markets that traders are most concerned about: the US dollar has not yet broken through the 110 level (closing at 109.63), and the 10-year US Treasury yield has not yet broken through 4.8% (closing at 4.76%) - even if it has reached the edge of danger, the most dangerous step has not yet come - if these two markets had reached the key integer thresholds last night, the decline in US stocks would have reached 3%.
The movement of gold has surprised many, dropping 20 dollars after the release of non-farm data, but then rising 30 dollars - this is not difficult to understand. The initial rise is a respect for the non-farm data, and the subsequent fall is because people have realized that this is a stock and bond market massacre, and they have poured into gold for safe haven. The gold market no longer simply regards this as a "data-induced earthquake", but qualifies it as a "pre-crisis signal", with the rise of gold and the dollar being a sign of "extreme panic".
Hopes of interest rate cuts have been dashed, and now the market expects no rate cuts in the January, March, May, June, and July meetings, with some analysts even suggesting the possibility of rate hikes. Wall Street's major banks have all changed their tune, with Bank of America believing the rate-cutting cycle is over. So, do you understand? The shift from "expecting a slowdown in rate cuts" to "expecting no further rate cuts" does not correspond to a single day's market performance, and worries will likely persist.
This decline is not a bad thing, it all happens at the beginning of Trump's term - it is a gift to Trump and to investors around the world. Poor market performance will limit Trump's implementation of extreme policies.