At 21:30, many people feel like the sky has fallen all of a sudden.

From past experience, every time major data is released, the U.S. stock market has been particularly lucky. It's like playing cards, getting whatever one wants, but this time it's not so lucky.
At 21:30 Beijing time, the first major data of 2025 was announced, and it seemed like the whole world was trembling along with it:
- US non-farm payrolls increased by 25.6% in December (market expectations: 160,000; previous value: 227,000) - far exceeding expectations
- Unemployment rate 4.1% (market expectation: 4.2%; previous value: 4.2%) - better than expected
1. It can be said that this is a good and even excellent data, but for the market, it is indeed a "major bad news", and many people feel that the sky has fallen all of a sudden. By comparing the chart below, you can roughly understand the level of this data.
2. Overall, the data shows the resilience of the labor market and further confirms the trend of gradual easing of inflationary pressures. This is the "first heavyweight data of 2025", which is very important in both symbolic and substantive terms - this data quickly led the market to accept that the Fed will not cut interest rates before June.
3. After the data was released, the US dollar index surged to nearly 110, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond briefly touched 4.77%. Gold plummeted by $20 in an instant - this was just the market's reaction within 5 minutes of the data being released. For US stocks, this economic data came at a particularly inopportune time and will further expand their decline.
4. Before the inauguration ceremony of Trump on January 20, investors will also receive another important data, which is the December CPI of the United States announced on January 15. The importance of this data is greater than the non-agricultural data, because the Federal Reserve has almost focused all attention on inflation, and the speeches of every official are inseparable from inflation. Therefore, by the end of the closing on Friday, the market will enter the "to be continued" mode. Given that the market expects that inflation may be more stubborn than previously expected, the market trend we see tonight is not all.