After reading the comments in the dynamic section, some friends are still worried that this bull run is over. If I have time today, I will talk more about my own views on the current market.

This bull run started from the bottom in January 23rd, 23. If we calculate based on the bottom of 15,700, BTC has already increased by 6 times so far. During this period, there have been two mid-term consolidations, breaking through two high points, one at 73,000 and the other at 104,000.
Until now, some old leeks believe that the Bull Market is over, because the new high has been achieved, and the altcoins have also had two rounds of Bull Market (March-April and November-December this year). The cycle of breaking the new high every four years has been broken, and there is no visible increase in funds inside and outside the market, nor has there been a large-scale FOMO phenomenon. The heat of the cryptocurrency market has declined, so the last Bull Market frenzy of BTC is completely over. It is recommended that everyone clear the positions and leave the market.
The investment market never believes in tears. Everyone invests real money in this market, so it is natural to have different opinions and voices. However, in my humble opinion, although their views seem reasonable, upon closer examination, there are many doubts. The intensive persuasion to leave may conceal some undisclosed secrets.
Long time ago, we discussed in the dynamic that triggered and maintained the three stages of this round of Bull Market. The first stage is the spot ETF, the second stage is the US presidential election, and the third stage is the official start of the interest rate cut cycle. According to the facts that have already happened, this round of Bull Market has added many favorable factors. These three stages can be adjusted as follows: In the first stage, BTC spot ETF is successfully passed, BTC broke through the previous high and reached 73,000. In the second stage, Trump won a high vote and BTC reached a new high of 104,000. In the third stage, Trump officially took office, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to neutral, BTC is highly likely to hit a high in 2025.
So, at the moment, we should be in the second phase. Chuan Jianguo will start his new and old ZF handover work next week, as everyone can see, every statement and personnel appointment he makes after his election will drive the market's sentiment. I believe you also understand that our market is actually very small in scale, and what we need most is to drive emotions and establish consensus.
Chuan Jianguo, when elected, said that he hopes the Beautiful Country will treat BTC as a reserve asset. From what I can see, this old man still has a lot of courage. As an ordinary person, I don't consider things like strategic vision or the unprecedented global changes of the century. Just based on the gradual implementation of these policies, coupled with the eccentric new politician like Lao Ma, once the encryption bill is passed, it is predicted that more and more countries will follow suit, and the value of BTC will become unstoppable. Yesterday, when I climbed over the wall to read the news, Chuan Jianguo clearly stated that during his tenure, he wants to push the price of BTC to at least 150,000, and based on the current price, it seems that this goal is indeed getting closer. It is highly likely that this round of bull market will be realized.
According to this logic, we start by analyzing the technical data. As shown in Figures 1 and 2, the current trend of BTC is quite healthy. After the needle was inserted at 90k at the beginning of this month, the long position leverage has been mostly cleared. The short-term probe of the support at 93K-94K has also stabilized, and it has returned to above 100k, testing the support line at 99K-100K. In the short term, BTC will likely encounter some pressure around the 100k mark. Once it breaks through the previous high at this point, BTC will usher in a new round of bull run. Currently, the data shows that we are still below the trend line, with room for upward movement, so the bull market is far from over. Perhaps by the end of the year, we will see 110-120k. When Chuan Jianguo officially takes office next month, bringing more policy stimuli, combined with the capital flow in the interest rate reduction cycle, the market consensus is to push for 150k. This seemingly scripted trend prediction is still quite optimistic.
The short-term key supports for the king of the altcoins, ETH, are 3.5K and 3.8K. It seems to have stabilized for now. In recent days, BlackRock and companies under the control of Chuangjian Guo have been increasing their holdings of ETH. So it is certain that ETH will soon hit a new high of 5K-6K.
Taking a look at historical patterns, despite the fact that this bull market broke new highs ahead of schedule, it is indeed more difficult for newbies to enter the market domestically compared to previous rounds. However, I still believe that the influence of BTC and the crypto market is gradually spreading. Especially after the entry of institutions and large companies in 2021, now even countries at the national level are following suit. More and more countries are joining the ranks of BTC purchasers, making it a national reserve asset.
This is not good news for ordinary people, but it is indeed a huge positive for the development of BTC. There is no denying that BTC is getting further and further away from ordinary people, and it is no longer a springboard for changing one's life and wealth. As a fren who entered the crypto world later, it is undoubtedly a missed opportunity. However, driven by BTC, the crypto market should become more prosperous. Despite the many traps and scams, with the gradual improvement of compliance, it can also become an opportunity for many young people to change their destiny. Although there are relatively high risks in playing altcoins, compared with other investment targets, if you can maintain sufficient awareness, sufficient knowledge reserves, sufficient trading skills, and sufficient investment mindset in the crypto world, the probability of generating positive results and returns is relatively high.
In this bull run, I have actually seen some young people in real life who have earned more than 5 years' worth of salary, whether it's participating in primary market IPOs or playing meme in the secondary market. The winners are those who are good at learning, brave enough to take the lead in crypto. As for whether they can preserve this wealth and overcome the weaknesses of human nature, it's a matter of individual judgment.
Recharge a little faith, everyone take a look at Figure 3, a comparative chart of the trend of several rounds of the bull run. At this stage, it's really not a time for impatience. In fact, this round of the bull run still has a long time to go, and it will continue until the end of the interest rate hike cycle next year, probably until October or November. Of course, this process will definitely be full of ups and downs. No one can accurately predict when the top will appear. The trend and time for each currency to hit the high point are also different. But I believe that at this moment, various powerful families have already planned several scripts for next year, and now they are waiting for BTC's performance.
I also found a very interesting picture. The data in Figure 4 shows that our great China is actually the second in the world in terms of BTC asset reserves, which is similar to the value of the beautiful country. In addition, Bhutan and Ukraine also hold so much BTC, which is information that we cannot know domestically. It's really surprising. Indeed, everyone is silently advancing a big banner. I don't understand, I don't understand. The great China is rich and the people are poor. Even if it ranks first, what does it have to do with us ordinary folks? A few days ago, my friend was frozen when depositing U in the bank card....
Digressed, finally a word of reminder, the Bull Market is very volatile. If you don't have strong skills, you must stay away from futures contracts. Even if you play futures, don't think too much about shorting at high points. Only by following the trend will you have good results. If you are fully invested at the moment, have confidence in yourself, patience in holding coins is enough, don't be indecisive, loving one asset after another. One person cannot make all the money, keep a calm mindset and wait for the opportunity. If you haven't opened a position yet, apart from popular memes, the future layout points should probably be the concept tokens of the AI and RWA tracks. These two tracks are currently the biggest narratives and are likely to run through the entire Bull Market. Pay more attention to tokens with the nature of American capital in this round, and the returns should not be too bad under the premise of the Americans showing off.
The dynamic number of followers has unknowingly exceeded 9400, welcoming a bunch of new fren and losing a bunch of old fren. Once again, I want to remind everyone that I am not Japanese. The name is purely randomly chosen for fun at the time. If you understand Cantonese, you should understand the meaning of this name. This dynamic account of Kikawa Taro has been intermittently updated for 3 years and has gained a lot. For me personally, the original intention was to create a 'tree hole' to record the bits and pieces and the journey of my currency trading career. Due to limited ability, I am afraid that some of my views may mislead everyone, so in the future, content with strong subjectivity will be posted in the subscription feed.
I don't need to rely on this for a living, but I need to protect my privacy and thinking space. Thank you for your support and understanding, and thanks to my friends who subscribe to buy me coffee. Well, that's all for today. Have a nice weekend and everything goes smoothly ☕