【HYPE Trading Strategy: Long and Short Entry Points, Stop Losses, and Position Management】

Core Viewpoint
On the macro level, the bullish structure remains intact (expectation of a five-wave upward move on the daily chart), but the short-term cycle has entered a correction phase. The $40.17-$40.00 zone is the "lifeline" for the bulls; holding this level maintains strength, while losing it signals a trend reversal.

1. Main Long Strategy (Range Bottom Play)

· Entry Range: $40.50 - $40.17
· Stop Loss: $39.80 (a break below this price indicates the bullish structure has failed)
· Position Management: 30% of total account (strict 1x leverage, no additional leverage)
· Take Profit Targets:
· T1: $42.50 (short-term resistance)
· T2: $45.50 (near previous high)
· T3: $50.00 (psychological level, requires volume breakout)

2. Cautious Short Strategy (Defensive Counterattack)

· Entry Conditions: Only enter after the 4-hour candlestick closes below $40.00, then re-bounces to the $40.80-$41.20 zone and faces resistance.
· Stop Loss: $41.80
· Position Management: 15% (contrarian trades on the left side, light positions)
· Take Profit Target: $38.50 (retracement at 0.618 of the previous rally).

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【Macro Economy and Market Analysis】

1. Technical Analysis: Key support determines life or death, volatility brewing for a trend reversal

· Trend Structure: The “fifth wave rally” starting from the April 2 low on the daily chart is under test. Currently, the price is at the lower end of the $40-$46 range, a classic “step back or step down” position.
· Key Levels:
· Strong Support (Bull-Bear Divide): $40.00 - $40.17. This is the demand zone and the average cost line of on-chain whales. As long as this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact; a daily close below indicates the “fifth wave” may have ended at $45.76, opening the downside space.
· Resistance: $45.50 - $46.00 (previous high selling pressure zone); psychological level at $50.00 (requires significant volume to break through).
· Volume Signal: Recent rebounds show insufficient buying momentum, with “decreasing volume” on the hourly level, indicating weak chasing behavior. Shrinking volume on a pullback to $40 is healthy; a volume surge breaking below $40 requires immediate stop loss.

2. News and Capital Flow: Fundamentals are strong, but “big fish” are relocating

· Whale Activity (Neutral to Slightly Bearish Signal):
· Positive: On-chain data shows large wallets (e.g., Valuescan) still opening longs around $41.20, indicating big players have not collectively withdrawn.
· Hidden Risks: Falcon Finance recently transferred about $13-17 million worth of HYPE to new wallets. While not directly selling, such “migrating” behavior is often seen as preparation for selling, which can suppress market sentiment. Caution is needed regarding the final destination of these chips.
· Fundamentals and Macro Sentiment (Medium-term Bullish):
· Protocol Revenue: Hyperliquid’s daily income is about $1.7 million, ranking first among Perp DEXs, demonstrating strong real profitability.
· Ecosystem Upgrades: HIP4 proposal introduces binary options, increasing trading frequency and capital efficiency, which is a core reason HYPE outperforms other altcoins. As long as BTC does not crash, HYPE’s fundamentals are sufficient to support its resilience. #加密市场行情震荡 $HYPE