$ORDI Recently, many people criticize scam coins, but also highly praise prediction markets. In fact, even if prediction projects are launched, they still face the same issues as air coins: reduced market liquidity. The main problem isn't the wild price swings of air coins, but rather that the entire air coin market has too few targets, lacking the universality of rapid rises and falls, which makes it difficult to attract more incremental capital. So, is the prediction market the antidote to the crypto market?

First, from a compliance perspective, prediction markets are just like air coins, still belonging to the gray area. Very few countries officially approve them. Even in the US, prediction markets are considered gambling. Similarly, even if prediction projects issue tokens, how much incremental capital can they really bring in? Someone suggests starting with the sports market, such as football, basketball, and other popular sports competitions, which can attract fans to participate and generate some incremental funds. That’s definitely a good idea and suggestion. But how to prevent issues like rave? Will the market's wild swings and public opinion then rise up again to wipe them out?
Regarding prediction markets themselves, let's look at the mainstream explanations: Prediction Market, also called opinion futures, information markets, or event derivatives, is a financial market specifically for trading “future event outcomes,” where prices directly reflect the collective judgment of the market on the probability of events occurring. The most famous is the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM): established in 1988, it was the earliest academic prediction market, often accurate in election polls. Polymarket: a native crypto prediction market covering politics, economics, sports, technology, etc., with trading volume exceeding $1 billion during the 2024 US election. Kalshi: a compliant US prediction market focusing on economic events (such as CPI, non-farm payrolls, interest rate hikes).
If these prediction projects all come online and capital floods in, more problems will arise. How to deal with them? Ultimately, it’s a matter of market environment. Before gaining official recognition, breaking through from any angle remains difficult. The correct approach is compliance and regulatory approval. Even Audi has faced quite a tough journey.