The recent market fluctuations have been unpredictable, and many are starting to fantasize about a bull market main upward wave. But I firmly believe: the current main trend is still a rebound, not a reversal, and the true bottom of the bear market is most likely to be seen in the second half of 2026.

Why do I say that? There are five core reasons:
First, the time cycle has not yet arrived. Historically, the duration of bear markets in the crypto market is usually around 12 to 13 months, and the current correction cycle is still far from enough.
Second, the black swan event has not truly appeared. Each bear market bottom is brought about by a black swan. Currently, although there is concern about AAVE's liquidity crisis, there hasn't been a major explosion yet. Until the crisis is fully cleared, we can't say the bottom has been reached.
Third, there is a lack of volume-driven accumulation characteristics at the bottom. Looking back at 2022, when BTC was between 15k and 20k, trading volume significantly increased, showing clear institutional accumulation and turnover actions. In contrast, now with BTC around 60k, there are no signs of large-volume accumulation, indicating that major funds do not recognize this as the bottom.
Fourth, 2026 will face an epic liquidity drain. Next year, there will be several mega IPOs, including SpaceX in June, and Q4's OpenAI and Anthropic, each raising hundreds of billions of dollars. This level of liquidity extraction will not only impact the US stock market but also the crypto market, which cannot remain unaffected.
Fifth, the curse of the US midterm elections. November 3, 2026, is the US midterm election. Historically, every midterm election has seen a significant decline in US stocks. Once US stocks fall sharply, it will inevitably drive the crypto market to further bottom out.
To summarize the operational approach:
In the short term, the goal of this rebound is very clear — to fill the CME gap, around 79,600 to 81,000. Be cautious when reaching this zone.
In the long term, bear markets historically decline by 70% to 80%. Considering the current support from ETF and other incremental funds, this decline is estimated to be around 60% to 70%.
The current strategy is: in the short term, focus on rebound and gap filling; in the medium term, stay cautious; and save your bullets for the true bottom in the second half of 2026! $BTC