Crypto Daily Report#比特币反弹

Bitcoin approaches $80k then sharply drops, Ethereum falls below $2,300, Middle East geopolitical risks heat up again
1. Market Sentiment

Bitcoin reached a high of $79,388 during trading yesterday, just a step away from the $80k mark, but the bulls failed to hold the high ground. During the early hours, it synchronized with U.S. stocks and plunged, briefly dropping below $77,000, then rebounded to hover around $78,000, with a slight overall decline over 24 hours.

Ethereum's performance was noticeably weaker. ETH broke below the key support level of $2,300, with a 24-hour decline of 1.5% to 3%, multiple technical supports were broken one after another, significantly lagging behind Bitcoin.

The total market capitalization is about $2.59 trillion, with trading volume shrinking in tandem. Funds are highly concentrated in Bitcoin, while altcoins face widespread outflows, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.

---

2. Key Signals

Bitcoin's dominance rose to 60.04%, while Ethereum's market share shrank to 10.79%. This structural change indicates that capital is flowing into the most liquid and most stable narrative assets, rather than a broad risk appetite revival.

The derivatives market has maintained negative funding rates for about 47 consecutive days, the longest such streak on record. Short-selling forces have been dominant for a long time, but this also means that if spot buying or short covering concentrates, a short-term "short squeeze" rebound could be triggered.

The sharp decline in the early hours triggered massive liquidations. The total liquidation in the market over 24 hours was about $250 million, with over 103k contract traders being liquidated, and long positions suffering significant losses.

---

3. Capital Flows

In Bitcoin, spot ETF funds turned positive for the first time this year. 12 spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $335 million in a single day, with a monthly total exceeding $2.1 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT being the largest contributor. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) invested about $2.5 billion in Bitcoin during the same week, providing clear buy-side support for spot holdings. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) attracted over $100 million in its first week of listing, with institutionalization accelerating.

In Ethereum, spot ETF inflows continued for the tenth consecutive day, totaling $633 million, with a single-day net inflow of about 35,736 ETH. Despite ongoing institutional fund inflows, ETH's price remains repeatedly resisted at the $2,400 level. The monthly futures annualized premium has fallen to just 1%, well below the neutral level of 4%, reflecting extremely weak leveraged long demand, and that buying pressure has yet to translate into price momentum.

---

4. Geopolitical Factors

The situation in the Middle East remains tense, becoming a core external variable in current market pricing.

On the 23rd, Trump issued a statement threatening to sink any ships laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has limited daily passage through the strait to less than 8% of pre-war levels. Brent crude oil remains above $95 per barrel. Although a ceasefire agreement was announced as "indefinite," substantive diplomatic progress has been nil, and Vice President Vance's scheduled trip was canceled due to Iran's refusal to send representatives.

High oil prices continue to fuel inflation expectations, exerting direct pressure on risk assets. Geopolitical turmoil is often interpreted as a bullish factor for alternative assets like Bitcoin, but if oil prices push interest rate expectations higher again, it could suppress the valuation space for BTC and ETH—this is the core dilemma currently facing the market.

---

The above content is compiled from public market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are high-risk; please make independent and prudent decisions.