$BTC Reasons for Bearishness:

Risks of Negotiation Breakdown and Military Escalation
Iran has officially refused to attend the second round of negotiations, while Trump previously threatened that if an agreement is not reached, "a large number of bombs will start exploding." The core demands of both sides are fundamentally opposed—The U.S. demands Iran's permanent denuclearization and opening the Strait, touching Iran's red line of sovereignty. This "maximum pressure" strategy is seen as a manifestation of hegemonic thinking, and the negotiations have essentially fallen into a "structural deadlock."

Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade
The U.S. has announced a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a chain reaction: at least 135 million barrels of crude oil are stranded on Persian Gulf tankers, Europe's aviation fuel reserves are "only about six weeks left," and fertilizer prices have surged 100%-150% in two weeks. Some analysts point out that the blockade is not only ineffective but could "backfire on the U.S. itself," intensifying global economic pain.

The U.S. Economy Is Being Hit Back
The conflict has already begun to backfire on the U.S.: March CPI year-over-year soared to 3.3%, the IMF downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast, JPMorgan raised the recession probability to 40%, and Moody's even predicted 49%. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma between "fighting inflation" and "saving the economy," with rate cut expectations delayed to the second half of the year. Some comments suggest that Trump is eager to "exit with dignity" but is caught in a difficult situation; this war is turning into a "political quagmire that is hard to resolve."

Global Order Faces Disruption
Analysts point out that the U.S.'s unilateral blockade is accelerating the "de-dollarization" process, with the global monetary system rapidly restructuring around energy pricing power and regional settlement, posing an "irreversible shock" to dollar hegemony. Meanwhile, Israel's military operations in Lebanon are seen as an attempt to "kidnap the U.S." and create new hotspots, adding to the complexity of the situation.