$BTC The current US-Iran temporary ceasefire will expire on April 22. Trump stated that the US and Iran will resume talks, but Iran's officials explicitly refused a second round of negotiations. The conflicting attitudes between both sides have made the situation uncertain and have brought direct risks to the crypto market.

The expectation of escalating geopolitical conflicts is increasing market risk aversion sentiment. If the ceasefire breaks down and conflict resumes, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted, pushing up oil prices and strengthening the US dollar. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as risk assets, are likely to face selling pressure, with increased short-term correction risks. If both sides eventually restart negotiations and the situation eases, risk-averse funds returning could drive mainstream coins to recover and rebound. However, the current market’s pessimistic outlook on the situation is already partly reflected in the charts.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are currently in a generally volatile and weak trend, with rebounds mostly being technical corrections and no clear reversal signals yet. In terms of trading, investors should prioritize controlling their positions, avoiding full leverage or blindly bottom-fishing. For long positions, cautious traders can wait until the situation clarifies and prices retest key support levels before entering. Aggressive traders should only participate with small positions in short-term rebounds, quickly entering and exiting without holding onto positions. For short positions, cautious traders can wait until prices rebound to resistance levels before deploying, while aggressive traders must set stop-loss orders when following the trend with small positions to prevent sudden market shifts from causing sharp price jumps.

The uncertainty before the ceasefire expires remains the biggest variable in the market. At this time, cash is king, and strict risk control is more important than chasing short-term gains. Do not let short-term volatility cloud your judgment. $ETH $RAVE #美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡