#美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡 Bitcoin/Ethereum once again hit the “jumping board.” Can the next leg of the main upward wave still extend further?

The Strait of Hormuz has been back and forth, Iran just briefly loosened its stance, then turned around and shut it again. The situation has directly spun out of control— the strait keeps opening and closing repeatedly, and the second round of US-Iran negotiations is still without any outcome. The just-emerged optimistic sentiment in the market has immediately collapsed. All three major US stock indices are down across the board. In this kind of scenario, can it still affect the broader market?

Let’s briefly talk about the current price action. Kevin Woor, the Federal Reserve successor Trump has appointed, will attend a Senate hearing on Tuesday to be put through layers of questioning. Right now, the entire market is watching his one line: how much he plans to loosen interest rates, and when he will cut rates. After the rebound and breaking above resistance, the market continues to grind lower into a steady down drift. Tech stock earnings reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and then these Middle East developments— it’s very easy for a sudden flip to happen. This is also a key turning point…

First, it’s that the short-term rebound is being suppressed by declining volume. On Friday, at 78000, the price turned and met resistance, then fell back. For Ethereum, it’s even more so— after all, 2600 is the dense zone following the previous plunge, and the overhead pressure from the bulls is still quite fierce. When everyone is waiting for this rebound extension to play out and unwind the trapped positions, the result is a slap in the face in the other direction. As for the upper side of the pressure-testing range— following market sentiment to chase longs— there are also plenty of people. Let me add one more line: why have you been stuck making longs in that range for these two months at turning points?

On the monthly chart, the “big cake” at 67500 is bullish and suitable for going long; Ethereum at 1800 has bottomed and turned bullish. The entire trend structure has no empty short positions— including last Thursday’s smaller timeframe fake drop that closed with reduced volume, followed by a rebound that fought back. It openly signals that this is not a main upward wave with enough volume to test higher; it’s just that it won’t satisfy the game-playing psychology in retail traders’ minds. In other words, a false signal caused most people to jump off the bus early at the end of the rally. Up until Friday evening, when the price turned to probe resistance and pushed up to the 78000 level, Ethereum also fully rebound in line with expectations— reversing from 2450 resistance. The rebound across exactly two monthly line cycles is flawless.

So before the current trend changes, any short-term drop is still just a pullback. Always learn to handle your positions in time— don’t become the bag-holder for chasing and selling at the wrong time. Whether it’s a false breakout in the daily triangle area, or a real pullback, respect the trend within the session!

For the “big cake” on smaller timeframes, longs are still built around 73500-73800. If it rebounds, look for 74800-75500. Once it steps onto the key turning point at 76000, it can continue probing higher points with protection, and you can gamble on the rebound— if it doesn’t break through, don’t hesitate to retreat and get out in time!

For Ethereum, it’s long around 2250. Let the rebound in the range happen in sync with the “big cake,” and be patient to wait for 2300-2350. Standing firm at 2400 also provides protection. The defensive approach should be decided based on your actual position size.