Commodities Spot Gold Intraday Analysis: Last Friday's rebound was a false signal; Monday's decline is a liquidation

After a remarkable counterattack rally last Friday, spot gold reopened lower on Monday, currently testing the critical psychological level at $4,800. On Monday, gold experienced a sharp sell-off, mainly due to the weekend's worsening US-Iran situation, which directly threatened the upcoming two-week ceasefire agreement. The resurgence of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz did not benefit gold as usual; instead, it rekindled market demand for the US dollar as the ultimate safe-haven asset.
According to the latest geopolitical news, US President Trump announced on social media Sunday that an Iranian cargo ship named "TOUSKA" attempted to break through the US naval blockade, "which turned out very badly for them." In response to the US blockade and detentions, a spokesperson from Iran's Central Military Command issued a stern warning: "We warn the US military that the Iranian armed forces will soon retaliate against this 'armed piracy'."
The renewed surge in crude oil prices not only heightened inflation concerns but also reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish rate path. Gold prices are in a highly sensitive phase of the game, with volatility expected to remain elevated. The market is closely watching whether Iran will take substantive retaliatory actions or return to negotiations. On Tuesday, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Woor will testify before the Senate. Considering his previous policy stance, this hearing will be a key variable in determining the dollar's direction and whether gold bulls can mount a counterattack. #美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡