Enze: Gold gaps down at the open; there’s no need to panic—digging the low and rebounding remains the main theme

Over the weekend, the US-Iran situation kept shifting back and forth, and the market expected gold to open slightly lower on Monday. This morning, gold indeed gapped down at the open, at one point dipping to around 4730, sparking concerns that the rebound rally might come to an end. From multiple angles, this lower-open is more like a short-term sentiment concentrated release; the rebound has not ended. Today, most likely we’ll see a bottoming out and a rebound, filling the gap, and maintaining a pattern that’s volatile but overall bullish.

On the news front, over the weekend, the US-Iran situation took a sudden turn, the Strait of Hormuz has remained under continuous blockade, and the market is worried that inflation may rebound while expectations for rate cuts are cooling. The stronger US dollar has weighed on gold prices. However, the geopolitical conflict has not been substantially eased, and the safe-haven logic still remains. On top of that, global central banks have continued buying gold; China’s central bank has increased its holdings for 17 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices. This round of gap-down at the open is a short-term release of bearish factors, not a trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, after the London gold market opened lower, it quickly probed down into the 4730-4700 support zone. This area is a prior dense trading platform, and the support strength is relatively strong. While the 4-hour timeframe is short-term bearish, the bullish trend on the daily timeframe has not been broken. The 5/10-day moving averages still remain in a bullish alignment. With indicators rapidly repairing, the KDJ turns up from a low level, and rebound momentum is gradually building. The main rebound target on the upside is the $4820-4830 gap; after breaking through, it’s expected to return to the upward channel.

Judging from the current intraday price action, gold first probed down to $4730-4710 to confirm support, then consolidated and rebounded, showing a rhythm of initially suppressing and then turning upward. If $4730 can be held, the rebound trend will continue, with the target directly pointing to the $4820-4830 gap to be filled. Even if it temporarily breaks below $4730, the $4700 area still offers strong support, making a deep selloff very unlikely.

Notice:
The analysis above is Enze’s personal analysis. The market can change in an instant. The content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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