The prospects for a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran have diminished

According to ME News on April 19 (UTC+8), prediction market data shows that in the event “Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 30, 2026?”, the probability of the “Yes” option’s trading success rate decreased from 62.5% to 42.0%, a single-day drop of 20.5 percentage points.

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