Based on the specific parameters of this HYPE unlock (core contributor Cliff release) and historical market patterns, it is estimated that full selling pressure release will take 7–14 days. Today is the first day of unlocking (April 6), which is at the peak of risk release. Do not blindly buy the dip early in the week (April 7–9).

Why 7–14 days?

Nature of the unlock: Approximately 9.92 million HYPE tokens are being unlocked this time (accounting for 2.66% of circulating supply). The recipients are core contributors (the team). These entities typically have strong liquidity needs, and the unlock is a “lump sum” (Cliff), not a linear release, resulting in significant short-term selling pressure.

Historical reference: Looking at Cliff unlock histories of mature public chains like APT, AVAX, etc., releasing 2%–5% of circulating supply usually takes the market 1–2 weeks to fully absorb the tokens. As a leading DEX token, HYPE has good liquidity, but the potential sell pressure of nearly $400 million still requires time to turn over.

Predicted timeline for selling pressure release (Beijing time):

April 6–9 (High-risk period): Stay resolutely on the sidelines. The first 3–5 days after unlock are peak periods for the team/VCs to transfer or negotiate off-market, and the market may experience independent declines or high volatility unrelated to the overall trend.

April 10–12 (Observation period): Monitor the impact of other token unlocks like BABY, LINEA, etc., on overall sentiment. If HYPE’s price does not hit new lows during this phase, it indicates initial absorption is underway.

After April 13 (Safe signal period): If on-chain data shows core wallets slowing token transfers and daily charts show reduced volume and sideways movement, it can be considered that selling pressure has been largely released.

Three hard indicators to determine the end of selling pressure:

Before considering intervention, verify the following signals:

On-chain silence: Core contributor wallets have no large token transfers to exchanges for 3–5 consecutive days.

Price stabilization: Daily candles close with long lower shadows or doji at key support levels (such as MA30 or previous lows).

Cooling sentiment: Significant reduction in panic posts about “HYPE unlock dumping” on Twitter/Discord.

⚠️ Risk warning: HYPE uses a monthly unlock mechanism on the 6th, meaning similar selling pressure is expected at the start of each month. After this unlock, continue to monitor the next unlock scheduled for May 6. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战