Regarding the proposal "Bahrain Calls on the UN to Authorize Force to Open the Strait of Hormuz," this is a major diplomatic move amid heightened tensions, centered on seeking international legal authorization for the possible use of force. Currently, the resolution faces significant obstacles in the UN Security Council, with a very low likelihood of passing.

Below is an in-depth analysis of this event:

🎯 Background and Core Objectives of the Resolution

The resolution was proposed by Bahrain (the rotating chair of the Security Council this month) with U.S. support, aiming to address the current shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Since late February 2026, following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, Iran declared full control over the strait and has taken action against related vessels, risking the disruption of about 20% of global oil trade, with oil prices soaring sharply.

A key phrase in the draft resolution is the authorization for member states to use "all necessary defensive measures," which in international law is generally seen as a legal basis for the use of force. Its direct purpose is to greenlight potential military escort operations to break the blockade and ensure freedom of navigation.

⚔ Positions and Power Struggles: Why Is Passage Difficult?

The fate of the resolution hinges on the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), who currently hold sharply opposing positions:

Proponents (U.S., U.K.): Strong support. The U.S. hopes to obtain UN authorization to legitimize its leading "escort coalition" operations and to alleviate domestic inflation pressures caused by soaring oil prices. The U.K. generally aligns with the U.S. stance.

Key Opponents (China, Russia, France): Explicitly oppose. These three P5 members have all raised serious objections to the proposed authorization for the use of force.

Opposition rationale: They believe that in the current highly sensitive situation, authorizing force would be an "extremely dangerous" escalation, potentially pushing regional conflicts into full-scale war. They advocate for resolving the crisis through diplomatic and political means.

Conclusion: Since any one of China, Russia, or France can exercise veto power, and the three have formed a consensus against the resolution, the likelihood of it passing in the Security Council is extremely low.

🌊 Strait Status Quo: Selective Control, Not Complete Closure

The actual situation is more complex than a "total blockade":

"Fee station" model: Iran has not indiscriminately blocked all ships but has adopted selective control. It allows ships from "friendly countries" (such as China and India) to pass after paying tolls (some settled in RMB), while firmly intercepting vessels related to the U.S. and its allies.

High-Risk Operations: Attacks within the strait are frequent, shipping insurance costs have skyrocketed, and the actual passage is in a state of high risk and high cost—effectively a "quasi-blockade."

📈 Impact on Global Markets (Including Cryptocurrency)

This geopolitical event is one of the core variables affecting global market risk sentiment:

Direct Impact: Oil prices are the primary transmission channel. Any escalation in the situation will directly push up international oil prices, intensifying global inflation concerns.

Complex Effects on Cryptocurrency Markets:

Safe-Haven Attribute: During initial conflict phases or periods of uncertainty, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may temporarily exhibit "digital gold" safe-haven qualities, attracting some capital inflows.

Liquidity Suppression: If oil prices surge and trigger renewed inflation, forcing major central banks like the Fed to maintain high interest rates or tighten monetary policy further, global market liquidity will be drained, putting heavy pressure on all risk assets—including cryptocurrencies. This "stagflation" concern is the market’s greatest worry.

Summary: Bahrain’s proposal is more likely a diplomatic pressure tactic and a test, with little chance of gaining Security Council approval. However, the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a "Damocles sword" hanging over global markets. The energy crisis and inflation risks stemming from this standoff will remain key macro factors influencing market sentiment for some time. Investors should closely monitor Security Council voting developments and major powers’ diplomatic maneuvers. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战