#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Gold’s Massive Jumps and Dives Under the US-Iran Conflict: High-Level Dive and a Deep V-Shaped Rebound—Is Gold No Longer a Safe Haven?

Since the US-Iran conflict began in late February, the international crude oil market has directly posted a rare major move: oil prices surged by more than 70%. WTI crude broke through $110, and spot crude oil even broke above $140.
Compared with that, gold first plunged 26% from the 5598 dollars level at the beginning of the year, falling to 4100 dollars, and then rebounded back to more than 4600 dollars, with the overall decline reaching 17%.

Although the credibility of the US dollar has repeatedly been questioned, the dollar has also been showing strength and recently broke through 100.
After gold fell, it then rebounded again—while oil prices and the US dollar rose together, completely breaking previous rules.

The reason is that geopolitical conflict drives up oil prices, which triggers a warming of inflation. The market feels the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates, so the US dollar strengthens. Although gold is being weighed down by the dollar, it still rebounds thanks to safe-haven demand and long-term protection against inflation.

Historically, when gold has suffered major declines, it has basically been caused by the Federal Reserve raising rates and tightening liquidity. A chart can help you understand the gold trend since the 1980s at a glance: as shown below.
This year, gold has fallen nearly 20% from the recent peak of close to 5600 dollars. The panic selling has basically already run its course. Bottom-fishing funds and central bank purchases of gold are providing support—so short-term consolidation and volatility are normal, and the logic of a long-term bull market is still in place. Looking ahead, the future direction will still largely depend on Middle East geopolitics and Federal Reserve interest rate policy.