Will ETH break below $2,000 in the short term or break through $2,150 to initiate a rebound? What is your view on ETH's medium- to long-term trend?

Feel free to share your opinions in the comments section, and let's discuss the cyclical patterns and investment logic of the crypto market together!
Below are some viewpoints—please refrain from negative comments if you disagree! Thanks. (April 5, 2026)

1. The "King of Cycles" in Historical Crypto Markets: ETH's Destiny
Since its inception in 2015, Ethereum has always been the core market indicator in crypto, with its price movements deeply tied to industry cycles, technological upgrades, and capital flows. From the 2017 ICO bubble peak at $1,400 to the 2018 bear market low at $80; from the 2021 DeFi/NFT boom reaching a record high of $4,800 to the 2022 rate hike cycle bottom at $880, each surge and plunge of ETH confirms the market's "bull-bear alternation and cyclical recurrence" law.
As of early April 2026, ETH has been oscillating between $2,000 and $2,150, with fierce battles between bulls and bears. This article will objectively analyze ETH's recent trend based on historical cycle patterns, current technicals, fundamentals, and capital flows.

2. Revisiting Historical Patterns: ETH's Cycle Code and Key Features
1. Duration and Magnitude of Bull-Bear Cycles
- 2017-2018 (ICO cycle): Bull run surged over 1,400 times (from $0.3 to $1,400), bear decline of 94% (to $80), cycle lasted about 2 years.
- 2020-2022 (DeFi/NFT cycle): Bull run from $200 to $4,800 (23x increase), bear decline of 82% (to $880), cycle lasted about 2.5 years.
- Core pattern: Each ETH bull market is driven by ecosystem explosions (ICO/DeFi/NFT) plus capital inflows; bear markets are triggered by tightening regulations, liquidity crunches, and bubble bursts. Bear declines typically exceed 60%, with rebound periods ranging from 1 to 18 months.

2. Long-term Impact of Technological Upgrades and Supply-Demand Structure
- The Merge (2022): Transition from PoW to PoS, annual inflation rate dropped from 4.5% to below 0.5%, combined with EIP-1559 burn mechanism, shifting ETH from an "inflation asset" to a "deflationary expectation," strengthening long-term value support.
- Staking rate increase: As of April 2026, ETH staking exceeds 28%, circulating supply continues to tighten, reversing supply-demand dynamics and providing underlying support for long-term prices.

3. Correlation with Bitcoin
ETH is highly positively correlated with BTC. The BTC halving cycle (every 4 years) is a key anchor for major crypto cycles. After the 2024 BTC halving, the market enters a new expansion phase, but ETH often moves ahead of BTC due to ecosystem volatility, adjusting before BTC and rebounding earlier.

3. Recent Trends (February-April 2026): Technical, Fundamental, and Capital Landscape
1. Technicals: Consolidation with Key Levels
- Price Range: After hitting the annual low of $1,736 in February, ETH entered an upward channel with oscillations, rebounded above $2,200 in March, then retreated to $2,050–$2,100 in early April, repeatedly failing to break the $2,150 resistance.
- Key Indicators:
- 3-day RSI shows hidden bearish divergence (price highs decline while RSI makes new highs), indicating short-term momentum is weak.
- Moving averages are in a bearish alignment (EMA5