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U.S. President Trump’s tough warning on Saturday to take “further action within 48 hours” logically aligns, in terms of logic, with the previously established timeline.
Earlier, Trump had publicly announced that, at the request of the Iranian government, strikes against Iranian energy facilities would be delayed by 10 days, until 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Saturday’s remarks were precisely aimed at applying maximum pressure to this impending “ultimatum.”
There are several core changes here.
First, the “dimensionality reduction” and “precision” of military targets.
In a recent nationwide television address, Trump explicitly stated that if an agreement is not reached within the next two to three weeks, the U.S. military would carry out extremely fierce strikes against Iran, with the targets shifting from previously broad military facilities to “every power plant” as well as potential oil infrastructure (such as Khark Island). This strategy is designed to force Iran back to the negotiating table by paralyzing Iran’s civilian livelihood and economic lifelines, rather than getting stuck in a long-term quagmire of ground war.
Second, the “substantive transfer” of control over the Strait of Hormuz and the shifting of responsibilities.
This is the most far-reaching marginal change affecting global capital markets. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the United States almost does not import oil through the Strait of Hormuz, so it refuses to continue taking on escort responsibilities for the strait and demands that countries relying on this route “seize control and protect it themselves.” In essence, this statement lays the groundwork for U.S. strategic contraction in the Middle East (TACO, i.e., declaring victory and withdrawing troops), meaning that the throat of global energy transportation is facing a power vacuum.
Third, Iran’s countermeasures and the threat of “commercializing the strait.”
Faced with U.S. pressure, Iran not only threatened that if it were attacked, the entire Middle East (including allied countries with U.S. military bases) would be plunged into a blackout, but also attempted to establish a “fee + access” system for the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only ships from friendly countries to pass after paying high fees. At present, the regular commercial transit volume through the strait is close to zero, and about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation is being severely hindered.
The logic of “supply constraints” and “risk-aversion sentiment” is strengthened.
Supply constraints: oil and gas extraction, upstream energy, cross-border shipping, and energy logistics
A long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or “fee-based” control, will directly result in a substantial real gap in global crude oil supply. Even if the conflict does not evolve into a full-scale war after 48 hours, the U.S. abandoning escort duties will cause the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil to become entrenched over the long term. In the short term, oil prices have strong momentum to see shocks and could even stabilize above $100 per barrel. With the strait obstructed, global oil tankers and cargo ships are forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope at massive scale—this not only significantly lengthens voyage distances (increasing demand for ton-miles), but also causes a sudden contraction in global effective capacity. Coupled with the surge in premiums in Middle Eastern waters, the freight rate benchmark for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) will face a reassessment.
Risk-aversion sentiment: precious metals and hard assets
The tail-end risks of war escalation, combined with the surge in crude oil prices that sparks “second-round inflation” concerns, undermine confidence in the dollar and completely disrupt the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path. As the ultimate safe-haven asset and anti-inflation tool, gold is receiving a double boost from the Davos “double-click.”