Crude oil$CL may experience sharp rises and falls in the future

Currently, the market has a common assumption about this wave of conflict in the Middle East: it will end soon, shipping will resume, and oil prices won't spiral out of control. But based on the current negotiation conditions being released, this expectation is clearly premature.

The conditions being proposed by both sides are basically ceiling-level—dismantling nuclear facilities, permanently abandoning nuclear capabilities, war reparations... These kinds of demands are fundamentally still in the probing stage and are far from being finalized.

If we break down the entire negotiation process, it generally goes through three stages:

Stage One, which is actually now.
Both sides push conditions to the extreme, mainly testing each other's bottom lines and negotiation willingness. In other words, they are just haggling over prices first, not reaching a real agreement.

Stage Two, the key is seeing the possibility of a ceasefire.
Once the market starts to believe there’s hope for an agreement, it becomes the most dangerous time. Because both sides will want to gain more chips before the final deal, often leading to more aggressive and extreme actions, even deliberately creating tense incidents to raise their bargaining position.

Stage Three is the true conclusion.
Core disagreements begin to converge, consensus is gradually reached, and the conflict enters the ending phase.

But for the market, the focus isn’t on the third stage but on the second.

Looking back at past Middle East energy crises, the true peak of oil prices often isn’t when the war just breaks out, nor after the official ceasefire, but rather in a very delicate window—about 2 to 4 weeks when negotiations seem close to breaking down but are actually not far from a final agreement.

The fundamental logic is simple:
It’s not about escalating the war, but about quickly filling the chips to force the other side to make concessions and end the conflict sooner.

Technical analysis of crude oil is basically useless; it mainly depends on news and the development of geopolitical crises. My clear view is: start shorting at 120, add to the short at 150. Crude oil can’t keep rising forever; if it does, the world will face big trouble. The ultimate outcome will definitely be a sharp plunge.