4.5 Next Week's Gold Opening Price Rise and Fall Summary and Analysis

The market is closed today, but we also need to pay attention. Next week’s opening is absolutely not going to be calm. Big changes are expected over the weekend. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data was delayed, and next week’s market will determine the big direction and major trend for April gold. Thursday’s price action changed, and both the article and the video were updated in a timely manner. I reminded everyone to change their way of thinking. In the first update, I told everyone that below 4800, gold would enter a mid-term corrective trend; from there, it would move down to 4500. Although the points didn’t quite reach that level, after a second probe during the U.S. session, the confirmation came for the secondary low at 4578. [Taoguba]
This Friday, the international gold market was closed due to Good Friday. In the evening, the U.S. March Non-Farm Payrolls data was released as scheduled. The figures came in far above market expectations, forming a “double negative” that suppressed the performance of gold and silver. In addition, earlier on Thursday, the U.S. and Iran tore up the ceasefire agreement; the situation tightened again, but it did not lift the gold price. With multiple factors converging, the probability of spot gold taking a bearish path and even seeing a sharp drop next week continues to rise.
Regarding the Non-Farm Payrolls data: the number of new jobs added this time was 178k, well above the market’s 60k expectation. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, an impressive figure that fully confirms the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy. This directly caused the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts to cool sharply. The hawkish tone of keeping high rates for longer has been reignited. As a result, the index and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened in tandem. The carrying cost of non-yielding gold climbed significantly, and capital accelerated its withdrawal from the gold market, becoming the core driving force behind the decline in gold prices.
Overall, the market has maintained range volatility after a “bottoming and rebound,” with intense competition between bulls and bears. On the weekly chart, it closed as a bullish candle with a relatively long upper wick. On Monday, after gold tested a low at 4419 dollars, it rebounded; the day’s high reached 4580 dollars. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the uptrend continued, with a cumulative gain of more than 310 dollars; the high reached 4793 dollars. On Thursday, gold surged and then fell back. London gold saw a sharp drop, with a single-day decline of 246 dollars. It bottomed near 4555 dollars and closed at 4675 dollars.
At present, gold is closing around 4676. We cannot predict how the market will perform over the weekend, but from a technical perspective, gold will most likely fall back into consolidation again. On the daily timeframe, price action is under the Bollinger midline. If 4800 cannot be broken through, there is a possibility of a pullback. On the H4 timeframe, the Bollinger bands are converging, and the effective range is 4800-4500. In the short term, as long as this range is not broken, there won’t be a one-way trend. Therefore, next week—assuming there are no major changes in the market—keep an eye on the gains and losses within this range. Of course, one sentence from Trump can ignite the market. If new news comes out next week—Non-Farm Payrolls data is released, and if the Fed’s policy tone turns—then if gold breaks above 4800, you can look toward 5000; if it breaks below 4500, you can look toward 4350. Then we’ll do a more specific analysis.

From a technical standpoint, bearish signals for gold have appeared across the board. On the daily level, it has printed consecutive large-bodied bearish candles, and it has effectively broken below the strong 4700 support level. That level has now turned into strong resistance overhead. The moving-average system is arranged bearish: the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned down together, and the 20-day moving average at 4780 forms strong mid-term overhead pressure. At the same time, the RSI has fallen into a weak range, and the MACD has a dead cross turning downward. The Bollinger lower band has widened its opening, and downside momentum hasn’t been fully released yet. In the short term, gold’s rebounds lack strength; it is showing a pattern of progressively lower highs and continuously lower lows. 4600 is a key short-term support. Once it is lost, gold will directly test 4550, and then it will probe the 4400 level—meaning the downside room will be fully opened.
Looking ahead, in the near term, the bearish-dominant pattern for gold is unlikely to change. Any technical rebound should be treated as a weak correction. For trading, it’s recommended to follow the trend: primarily look to position short trades on rallies. Pay special attention to the opportunity to short within the 4700-4740 range. Set the stop-loss above 4800. The initial target is 4550; after a breakdown, then look down to 4400. Be aware of the possibility of short-term volatility caused by sudden changes in geopolitical conditions, but overall the trend still remains bearish.