#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge The latest report published by the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant points to a notable divergence in the Bitcoin market.

According to the analysis, due to sales by both individual investors and large wallet holders, Bitcoin demand is internally contracting, while a clear mismatch has emerged between market sentiment and capital flows.

The report states that although the Fear and Greed Index remains in the 8–14 range, indicating an "extreme fear" level, there was a net inflow of over $1 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in March. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects institutional demand in the U.S., continues to stay in negative territory, indicating limited participation from U.S. investors. The volatility caused by geopolitical tensions related to Iran has led markets to adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy, while the sales are attributed not to panic but to a gradual weakening of demand.

Although Bitcoin's price has declined by about 47% from its peak of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, this drop is considered more limited compared to the sharp crashes exceeding 85% in previous cycles. Analyst Zack Wainwright stated that this indicates the Bitcoin market is maturing and volatility is decreasing over time.

Potential catalysts that could support the market in the coming period include approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF by Morgan Stanley. This development could provide access to approximately $6.2 trillion in assets through around 16,000 financial advisors. Additionally, Strategy’s continued monthly purchase of about 44,000 BTC through its preferred stock product is seen as an important factor for providing a steady demand flow into the market.

Short-term technical indicators suggest that if geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin's price could potentially recover to the range of $71,500–$81,200.

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