#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Gold remains volatile, crude oil surges wildly. Next week's trading logic for the two major products

On the previous trading day, Thursday, international gold faced resistance and declined, closing lower. Trump’s nationwide speech did not convince the market that the war would end soon or that the Strait of Hormuz issue would be resolved. Instead, it intensified conflicts, stating that in the next two to three weeks, Iran would continue to be heavily targeted, boosting crude oil and the US dollar significantly, which caused gold prices to plunge nearly $250. However, it eventually bottomed out and rebounded. During the US trading session, Iran announced it was drafting a passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, easing inflation concerns. This kept gold prices above the 100-day moving average, indicating that the bulls still hold some advantage, and there is still potential for a bullish rebound in the future.

Last Thursday, gold surged to a high of 4800 before pulling back, with the decline reaching as low as 4550, which is 50% of the overall weekly gain. The saying "the rise is half of the correction" aligns with Dow Theory. This also means that if gold continues to rise next week, breaking above 4800 is possible.

Note that it is possible to break through, but not guaranteed. If the weekend holiday passes with calm news, next week’s upward pressure could push gold toward 4850 or even higher.

From a technical perspective, indicators across various timeframes are improving. The 1-hour and daily charts have completed bullish cross signals below the price, creating resonance across different cycles, so the rebound may continue.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in an upward channel following the second wave of sharp decline. The key is to watch for a break of this channel. If the situation worsens over the weekend and gold falls below 4550 next week, further support levels to watch are 4510–4485.

Last Thursday, stimulated by Trump’s speech, WTI crude oil surged sharply in the morning, then continued to fluctuate and recover. It has now broken above 110, with no signs of a correction, indicating that under the influence of news, the market remains highly emotional about crude oil. Given the current soaring state, the upward trend in crude oil is unlikely to have peaked yet, and future movements will still depend on news developments.

Crude oil surged significantly this week, with a long lower shadow on the weekly candlestick. Next week, it is expected to be a low-buying opportunity. However, before the high of 120 is broken, caution is advised against a second attempt to push higher without a new high, which could lead to a pullback.

For next week’s trading strategy, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips and look for rebounds to sell at higher levels. Short-term resistance is around 115–120, and support levels are around 104–100.