The six major banks' mortgage loans have decreased by 710 billion. Is it worthwhile to pay off your mortgage early now?

Gelonghui April 4丨According to The Paper, has the wave of early mortgage repayments ended? Since the second half of 2022, borrowers of personal housing loans in China have accelerated their early loan repayments and gradually formed a “prepayment rush” over a period of time. But now, scenes of grabbing tickets at dawn and waiting in line for months are no longer common.

Data compilation shows that banks’ outstanding balances of personal housing loans are still declining. In 2024, as the main force behind the issuance of housing loans, the six state-owned banks’ personal housing loans decreased by 0.62 trillion yuan; while in 2025, the net decrease for the full year was 0.71 trillion yuan, an expansion in the decline compared with 2024. As personal mortgage balances keep shrinking, the personal housing loan balances of the six state-owned banks have all said goodbye to the “trillion-yuan-for-600” era.

From the national picture, personal housing loan balances are also moving downward. Data from the PBoC shows that at the end of 2025, the nationwide outstanding balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, down 1.8% year over year. This indicates that for some banks, the outstanding balance of personal housing loans may even have increased, and that bank personal housing loans have entered a phase of fine-grained competition.

With interest rates at a low level, is it still worth making personal early mortgage repayments?

“Whether it’s worth it depends on the consumer’s current investment or savings return level, and how large the gap is between that and the mortgage interest rate after the rate cut.” Wang Pengbo, chief analyst at Bocom Consult, said. If the investment return rate is higher than the loan interest rate, you can consider putting more of the funds into investments; otherwise, you can consider repaying part or all of the loan. In addition, you also need to set aside funds for day-to-day living expenses and for future retirement and medical care.

Also, from the perspective of repayment methods: generally speaking, under the equal-principal repayment method, more principal is repaid in the early stage and less interest is paid, so prepayment is comparatively more worthwhile. Under the equal-payment repayment method, more interest and less principal are repaid in the early stage; if the repayment has already passed halfway, you also don’t need to consider prepayment.