U.S. intelligence agencies assess that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be "opened" in the short term.

A recent intelligence report from the U.S. warns that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

According to Xinhua News Agency, recent assessments by the U.S. intelligence community hold that Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as an important “bargaining chip” for countering the United States, and is unlikely to loosen its control over this energy shipping chokepoint in the near term.

The analysis argues that the United States is currently trapped in multiple predicaments: on the one hand, Iran, with its inherent geographic advantages, controls the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult for the U.S. to “open” the waterway with force; on the other hand, Iran will continue to use the strait as a bargaining chip, making the outlook for negotiations bleak.

Since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has, in practice, been blockaded. This strait carries about one-fifth of global oil trade. The blockade has directly pushed international oil prices to multi-year highs, and has also led to fuel shortages in countries that rely on Gulf oil and gas.

Rising energy prices are intensifying U.S. inflation pressures, posing political risk for Trump—while the Republican Party is facing the midterm elections in November, and Trump’s polling data is already quite poor.

Strait of Hormuz — Iran’s core bargaining chip

The core logic of the intelligence assessment is that by blockading the strait, Iran gains unprecedented leverage in negotiations.

According to reports citing informed sources, Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, directly pointed this out: “In the process of trying to stop Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction on a large scale, the United States has instead given Iran a large-scale destructive weapon.”

He further said Tehran knows that its ability to influence global energy markets by controlling the strait is “far more powerful than nuclear weapons.”

A separate informed source, citing an intelligence report, claims: “Once Iran has tasted the power and leverage of controlling the strait, it won’t easily let go.”

Former CIA director Bill Burns said on a podcast for Foreign Affairs that Iran will use its control of the strait to secure “long-term deterrence and security assurances” in its peace talks with the United States, while also seeking “direct material benefits”—for example, charging passage fees to commercial vessels. “That,” he said, “makes the current negotiations extremely tricky.”

Some experts also point out that even after the war ends, Iran is unlikely to give up its control over passage rights through the strait, because collecting passage fees will become an important source of funds for rebuilding.

Forcibly opening by military force: risks far beyond expectations

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media saying, “Give it a little more time and we’ll easily open the Strait of Hormuz, seize the oil, and make a fortune.” This may suggest that the U.S. military could be ordered to reopen the strait.

But experts generally warn that the cost of using force is extremely high.

The narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles (about 33 kilometers), while each of the two-way shipping channels is only 2 miles (about 3 kilometers) wide, making ships and troops extremely easy targets for attack.

More importantly, even if the U.S. military occupies the southern Iranian coast and islands, Iran can still launch drones and missiles from deep within Iran to continue threatening vessels traveling through the area. Ali Vaez said: “With just one or two drones, it’s enough to disrupt traffic and scare ships away.”

Trump’s contradictory stance

At the policy level, Trump’s statements contain clear contradictions. On the one hand, he lists opening the strait as a precondition for a ceasefire; on the other hand, he calls on countries that rely on Gulf oil and NATO allies to take the lead in solving the problem.

An anonymous White House official said that Trump “believes the strait will be opened soon,” and explicitly stated that after the war, Iran must not be allowed to control passage rights through the strait. The official also pointed out, however, that Trump believes other countries have “more interests than the United States” in preventing this situation from emerging.

The conclusion of the intelligence assessment, which sharply contrasts with Trump’s optimistic remarks, has also made the market more cautious about expectations that normal passage through the strait will resume in the short term.

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