The core theme of today's market is the U.S. March non-farm payroll data released at 20:30, which is the fundamental logic behind the day's trend:

• Data result: March seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k, significantly exceeding market expectations of 60k. The previous figure of -133k was greatly revised upward, indicating extremely strong employment data.

• Key impacts:
1. The Fed's rate cut expectations are completely delayed: The much better-than-expected non-farm data directly shattered the market's anticipation of a rate cut in June. The market is now re-pricing the rate cut to be delayed until September or later, with the US dollar index and Treasury yields surging strongly.
2. Risk assets come under broad pressure: Crypto markets and US stocks both face downward pressure, with bullish sentiment immediately cooling down. The market shifts from "betting on rate cuts" to "adapting to high interest rates."
3. Market volatility spikes: After the data release, BTC/ETH both experienced quick spikes followed by pullbacks, with sharp divergence between bulls and bears. Intraday volatility significantly increased.

Suggestions:
With strong non-farm payroll data, expectations for rate cuts are greatly delayed, the dollar strengthens, and the crypto market generally remains volatile and bearish.
Maintain strict overall positions, avoid heavy or all-in trades.
Set stop-loss on every trade, and do not arbitrarily widen stops.
Avoid counter-trend bottom fishing and do not gamble against the market.
Trade infrequently, focusing only on high-probability key points.
During spike-like movements, observe more and act less to avoid being swept back and forth.
Stay steady with your rhythm; long-term survival depends more on consistent discipline than on catching a single big trend.
#三月非农数据来袭 #加密市场行情震荡 #国际油价走高