The following content reflects personal opinions only and should not be considered investment advice.

Today is Good Friday, and the US stock market and gold are both closed, so I will only update this Bitcoin post with a detailed explanation.

Figure 1 shows the weekly chart of BTC. Veteran followers should know that I mentioned when BTC dropped to 80,600: we are in a bear market cycle, and 80,600 cannot be the bottom. Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized that 60k will not be the bottom for BTC; the core logic is two words—cycle.

We are currently in the mid-stage of a bear market. Assuming 76,000 is the rebound endpoint from 60k, and the subsequent move is a decline similar to 97,900→60k, then the most intense wave of decline in the bear market will be basically complete, and the total decline from 126,000 will reach 80%-90%.

But a bear market is not only about the decline in price and percentage; another important dimension is time. If in Q3 2026, BTC drops to 52,000 or even 48,000, we will enter the late stage of the bear market. This period may manifest in various forms: golden pits, wide-range oscillations, narrow-range oscillations, or even extreme sideways trading.

Each stage will be met with doubts about the cycle: unwilling to believe the bull market has ended and the bear market has begun when dropping to 80,600; hoping the bear market is over when falling to 60k; and later, when falling to four or five ten-thousand, some will doubt whether Bitcoin will go to zero or if crypto is doomed. I have been in this market for 8 years, and every cycle, someone dreams "this time is different," but the final outcome is always the same—the cycle has never changed.

Spot position building is not yet the time. In the first quarter of this year, my main operations were contract trend shorts + some swing longs (such as the previous long from 80,600 and the recent battles at 60k, 62,500, 63,000 with rebounds), but I have never believed that the bear market will end early or that a bull market is imminent.

Looking at the smaller timeframe in Figure 2, I further detail the two trend paths I mentioned yesterday:

The red route remains unchanged: recently breaking below 65,000, then finding support at 62,000-63,000, followed by a rebound. After the rebound ends, the price will continue to decline, ultimately breaking below 60k.

The blue route details the recent scenario where BTC does not break below 65,000: first a rebound, then a continuation of decline after reaching the rebound endpoint, ultimately also breaking below 60k.

In summary, in April, we are highly likely to see a decline similar to 97,900→60,000. After this wave of decline from 126,000 completes and transitions into a consolidation phase, I may start building a spot bottom position.