Today is Good Friday, and the US stock market and gold are both closed, so today I will only update this Bitcoin post with a detailed explanation.

Figure 1 shows the weekly chart of BTC. Old friends should all know that I said when BTC dropped to 80600: we are in a bear market cycle, and 80600 cannot be the bottom. After that, at 97900, 91200, and 85000 during the drop, I also built positions multiple times to short. Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized that 60,000 will not be the bottom for BTC; the core logic is just two words—cycle.

We are currently in the mid-stage of a bear market. Assuming 76000 is the end of the rebound from 60,000, and then there is another wave of decline at the same level as 97900→60000, then the fiercest wave of decline in the bear market will basically be completed; at that time, the total drawdown from 126000 will also be completed at 80%-90%.

But a bear market cannot be judged by the drawdown percentage and price alone; another important dimension is time. Suppose in the third quarter of 2026 BTC drops to 52000 or even 48000; by then, we will enter the late stage of the bear market. This period may take multiple forms: a “golden pit,” wide-range consolidation, narrow-range consolidation, and even extreme sideways trading.

In every stage, people will question the cycle: when it falls to 80600, they are unwilling to believe the bull market has ended and the bear market has started; when it falls to 60,000, they fantasize that the bear market is over; later, when it drops to the mid-40,000s or 50,000s, others will doubt whether Bitcoin is going to zero—whether crypto is finished. I’ve been in this market for 8 years, and every cycle, people imagine that “this time is different,” but the final result is the same every time—cycles have never changed.

Building spot positions is not the time yet. In the first quarter of this year, my main actions were contract trend shorts plus some swing longs (for example, the long position from the previous wave starting at 80600, and this wave’s back-and-forth rebound bets around 6万, 62500, and 63000), but I have never imagined that the bear market would end early or that a bull market would arrive ahead of schedule.

From a smaller timeframe, in Figure 2, I further break down the two scenarios I mentioned yesterday:

The red route remains unchanged: recently, it will directly break below 65000, then after gaining support in the 62000-63000 range there will be a rebound. After the rebound ends, it will continue to fall, ultimately breaking below 60,000.

The blue route refines the scenario in which it does not break below 65000 in the near term: first it goes through a rebound; after finding the endpoint of the rebound, it will still continue to decline; ultimately it will also break below 60,000.
In short, in April, we will most likely see a decline at the same level as 97900→6万. After this wave of decline from 126000 completes and then transitions into a consolidation phase, I might start building a spot bottom position. #btc $BTC ‌