#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Continuation of the previous article—Trump’s “Deadline Trap”: What is the true intention behind three postponements? When “Non-Farm Payrolls” collide with global market closures, why did Trump’s extreme 1947 pressure turn into a “liquidity black hole” for the gold market?

At this point, someone may ask: the war is clearly ongoing, geopolitical risks are clearly surging—so why did gold instead plunge by 25 percentage points? Shouldn’t safe-haven assets rise? This is financial engineering, not geopolitics.

The inflation triggered by this war is not demand-driven inflation, but supply-side inflation caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the cutting off of Qatar’s almost all-natural-gas exports. Under this kind of inflation, once central banks tighten, the U.S. dollar strengthens, and the opportunity cost of gold—an asset that does not yield interest—rises.

In March, COMEX gold futures open interest fell by nearly 180,000 contracts—about $70 billion worth of leveraged positions were cleared out. This is the combined effect of three mechanical sell forces layered on top of one another: forced liquidation after leveraged ETFs, algorithmic trading, and failed margin calls—leading to a structural decline that has nothing to do with market sentiment.

But once forced liquidations are completed, these chips will not be sold at the current prices. The direction ahead has only one option: back to that low near $4,100 on March 23. Gold rebounded from $4,100 to where it is now—up more than 15%. That in itself proves that big money decisively entered at $4,100.

Over the past five days, the world’s largest gold ETF has seen net outflows of about $1.08 billion. Over the past month, net outflows have reached as much as $7.58 billion. Yet GLD’s physical gold holdings rose in March from 840 tons to 920 tons. This indicates that retail investors are redeeming ETF shares en masse in panic, while the more prescient big funds are using this channel to accumulate physical gold—taking all the shares retail investors threw out.

David Wilson, Head of Commodities Strategy at BNP Paribas, said that in this shock, gold’s performance is identical to its pattern in three economic shocks: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the geopolitical conflict in 2026. In all three cases, gold first falls and then rises. When panicked selling hits all assets and they get converted into dollars, gold will then experience a sustained surge. So the current sharp drop is not the end of a bull market—it is the final shakeout before the next round of a major rally.

If the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation by mid-April, the global crude oil supply loss caused by the war will double from the current 4.5–5 million barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day. This would be the largest crude oil supply loss since the 1973 oil crisis. Closing the strait for a quarter would lift the WTI oil price average to $98 per barrel. And if oil prices continue to spike to $170 per barrel, that would create textbook-level stagflation.

The latest CNN poll shows that Trump has a clear plan on Iran. More people believe that the economy is the top priority. The average U.S. gasoline price has already surpassed $4 per gallon—bigger than any added value from military victories. He must either reach an agreement or, at the very least, have the strait restore navigation before the pain felt by the economy becomes unbearable. Two to three weeks is not his final ultimatum to Iran; it is his final ultimatum to American voters.

At the same time, two seemingly contradictory signals have emerged: for Iran’s moderates, it is that negotiations can end quickly; for Iran’s hardliners, it is that even if they fight, they cannot win; for financial markets, it is that the war has an endpoint—but the endpoint has not arrived yet. Three statements, three audiences, all handled within one speech.

Hidden inside a seemingly off-topic remark within his address, he specifically told countries that depend on the Strait of Hormuz: you must take care of this passage yourselves, and cherish it. He had said earlier in the previous few days that if France or other countries want to ensure their energy supply, they can protect themselves. The strategic meaning of this statement is severely underestimated. In essence, he is declaring that the U.S. is shifting from being the free guarantor of global shipping security to becoming an alternative energy supplier and one of the largest oil-producing countries. The deeper the world’s reliance on U.S. energy exports, the stronger the U.S.’ pricing power and bargaining leverage. This kind of structural advantage shift will not reverse.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Dar has just wrapped up a trip to Beijing, where he jointly released a five-point peace initiative, including negotiations as soon as possible, protecting civilians, and ensuring the safety of shipping lanes. Dar came to Beijing after hosting meetings with foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia’s five countries. A former U.S. State Department official, Yuan Li, said that Iran has asked for guarantors for the U.S.-Iran agreement, and that the framework for a diplomatic solution is taking shape at an accelerated pace. Once news of a substantive breakthrough emerges, the impact on the market could be nuclear-bomb level: oil prices would plunge, inflation expectations would drop sharply, and rate-cut expectations would heat up. But conversely, if there is a full-scale attack on Iran’s power plants and oil facilities, oil prices could surge to $150 or even $170. After a brief safe-haven pulse, gold would continue to come under pressure due to a jump in the dollar and real interest rates. Both scenarios involve extreme volatility—which is why the next two weeks are decisive.

Look at the most recent 48-hour window: there is a risk that most people completely fail to notice. With major Western markets closed—starting tomorrow through next Monday—global major financial markets will experience a rare liquidity vacuum. Even with a small amount of capital, it would be enough to create a flash crash or flash surge similar to the low-liquidity environment of March 23.

At the same time, the United States will release the March Non-Farm Payrolls report as usual. The importance of this data cannot be overstated. In February, the U.S. economy lost 28,000 jobs net, far below the market expectation of 59,000 growth—its worst performance in four months—because the number of workers reduced by 28,000 due to strikes, and manufacturing was also contracting. Two consecutive months of employment contraction make the relationship between non-farm payroll data and gold very direct: if the employment data comes in weaker than expected, it will reduce the probability of Fed rate hikes, increase pressure for rate cuts, and gold will rise; if the data unexpectedly comes in stronger, gold will face continued downward pressure. The problem, however, is that the market is closed. The sentiment generated by the data will keep fermenting during the closure, releasing in an amplified, many-times manner. Combined with news of geopolitical easing during the holiday, gold could gap higher at Monday’s open. If Trump issues yet another statement escalating the conflict, gold could gap lower at Monday’s open. Holding heavy positions during the holiday means you are handing your fate to variables you cannot control.

My view is very clear: gold prices are compressed within the $4,640–$4,700 box—an interim pattern waiting for direction to be chosen. The upward conditions are: gold must reclaim $4,700 and stay above it for at least 4 hours, which would indicate some repair in short-term sentiment. $4,750 is the lifeline for the bulls. Only if this level holds can we discuss the room for $4,800–$4,900. The downward conditions are: once the $4,670 support is exhausted, it is broken, and $4,640 cannot be held—then stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading will trigger a chain reaction, pushing the price toward $4,600 or even lower. This is the final line of defense for this rebound. If it is lost, the low of $4,100 on March 23 cannot be ruled out.

There are three technical signals you must watch closely. First, the strength of the $4,670 support: if gold retests $4,670 but can only bounce to below $4,685, that means support is essentially meaningless. Second, the breakout situation around $4,700: if gold breaks above $4,700 and holds, it must be accompanied by a clear increase in trading volume. Third, the critical level at $4,750: it is already very clear on today’s chart. During the sell-off phase, volume expands, which means seller strength still dominates. The rebound is only short covering, not a bullish attack. At this moment, clearing your position is the biggest certainty.

Finally, I want to summarize the entire analysis in a single sentence: this is not a technical issue, but a macro structural contradiction. Rising oil prices push inflation higher, and rate hikes push up the dollar. This logic chain must be broken, and there are two exit routes. The first exit is real, substantive easing of the war—not vague hints in speeches, but meetings between the foreign ministers on both sides, or the formal signing of a ceasefire agreement. Once this exit opens, inflation expectations will be cut down sharply, and gold will see a retaliatory rally—following the historical pattern of three previous cycles of first falling then rising. And this time, the rebound could be even larger, because the prior forced liquidations cleared out leveraged positions, which makes the short-covering momentum even stronger. The second exit is if the U.S. economy deteriorates to the point where the Fed, even with inflation high, is forced to cut rates to protect jobs. If tomorrow’s March data continues to be negative, and with two months of employment contraction, recession risk will be brought to the surface. The Fed ultimately almost always chooses to protect growth. Once rate-cut expectations become established, gold’s valuation model will be restructured. But before these two exits open, any rebound could be a lure before the next decline.

So, every time Trump makes a statement claiming progress in negotiations, and every time Iran rapidly denies it, should not become your trading anchor. If a level breaks, you exit. $4,640 is the stop-loss line below—if it breaks, you should leave. $4,700–$4,750 is the pressure zone above. If today during the session gold can rebound to above $4,700, you can consider trimming positions or locking in profits for the holiday. If price keeps grinding between $4,640 and $4,680 without going up, it shows that bull confidence is severely insufficient. And since Easter plus Qingming Festival are coming, and you’re in a market that gets repeatedly harvested by Trump’s statements, going heavy over the holidays is not bravery—it’s the opposite. I remain optimistic that in 2026, global central banks will continue adding to gold holdings. GLD’s physical gold holdings will increase against the trend to 920 tons, and institutional funds will continue to accumulate at low levels. These are all evidence that the long-term bull market has not ended. But with Trump’s mouth still able to easily knock $150 off gold right now, position management matters 10,000 times more than directional judgment. When uncertainty is at its highest, preserving strength and waiting for signals to become clear before striking with full force—that is what a mature trader should do.
#贵金属承压回落