$BTC As we receive data on the U.S. economy, oil prices remain high, with WTI crude trading at $112 per barrel—one of the highest levels in the past few decades. This is nearly the same as the price levels during the 2008 financial crisis.

The longer these prices last, the greater their impact on future inflation indicators, including the CPI. We have yet to see these geopolitical developments reflected in the economic and inflation data going forward.
Positive economic data, such as low unemployment, and high oil prices currently pose the biggest threat to asset markets. On the other hand, weak economic data, while oil prices still remain high, is somewhat better for asset markets.
Ultimately, if oil prices continue to stay high, we will see unemployment rise and growth slow due to reduced demand and consumption. This could eventually slow inflation, which would give the Federal Reserve an opportunity to intervene in the markets.
However, this is still possible in the medium to long term, because in the short term inflation remains the priority, especially if the economy stays strong. But in any case, we will position ourselves before the Federal Reserve announces any market intervention, because by then the market may have already partially priced it in. ‌