Shanghai Mi Ge April 3

Bitcoin daily trend and contract trading strategy

1. Daily trend analysis

1. Current price and overall trend

Current price: Bitcoin's latest quote is $66,566.60.

Trend overview: Bitcoin is in a weak oscillating downtrend on the daily chart, retreating from the recent rebound high of $67,400. As of the analysis time, it has failed to break through the key resistance level of $68,000, with bears still dominating.

The long-term moving average system shows strong resistance, especially as the price continues to hover below EMA24, indicating limited bullish momentum and increased downside risk.

2. Technical indicator analysis

Moving averages: EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 form a "bearish alignment," with the price significantly below these averages, indicating market sentiment leaning bearish.

MA50 and MA200 continue to act as resistance, showing that the medium- and long-term trend remains weak.

Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the current price near the lower band and approaching the support at the lower band ($63,800). A break below this level could trigger further selling.

The price needs to break above the Bollinger Band middle line (around $68,000) to ease short-term pressure.

MACD and RSI indicators: MACD histogram turns green, forming a death cross signal, indicating continued downward momentum.

RSI is around 40, close to oversold territory but without clear signs of rebound, so the market remains neutral to weak.

KDJ indicator: KDJ triggers a golden cross, suggesting potential for a rebound, but faces resistance at key zones, requiring further confirmation of rebound strength.

3. Support and resistance levels

Support levels: First support: $66,000;

Second support: $63,800 (Bollinger lower band and psychological support).

Psychological support: $60,000.

Resistance levels: First resistance: $68,000;

Second resistance: $70,500 (previous rebound high).

Strong resistance: $72,000.

2. Contract trading strategies

1. Short-term trading strategy

Focus on swing trading with high and low points, dynamically aligning with support and resistance levels, while strictly managing risk.

Shorting strategy: Entry conditions: If the price rebounds to around $68,000 and faces resistance, consider opening a short position to catch a pullback.

Take profit targets: First target: $66,500;

Second target: $63,800 (Bollinger lower band).

Stop-loss: Above $68,500 to prevent trend reversal losses.

Long strategy: Entry conditions: If the price dips to $66,000 and stabilizes, with a KDJ golden cross and increased volume, consider a small long position.

Take profit targets: First target: $68,000;

Second target: $69,500.

Stop-loss: Below $65,500 to avoid further deep declines.

2. Medium- to long-term trading strategy

Suitable for traders focusing on trend opportunities, observing key zones for positioning.

Buying on dips: If the market further drops to $63,800 or lower (e.g., $60,000), consider scaling into long positions gradually.

Take profit targets:

First target: $68,000;

Mid-term target: $70,500;

Strong target: $72,000.

Stop-loss: Below $62,800, requiring timely liquidation to avoid deeper losses if the psychological level is broken.

Flexible shorting: If the price rebounds quickly to between $70,500 and $72,000 but cannot break through, consider adding to short positions cautiously.

Take profit targets:

First target: $68,000;

Second target: $66,000.

Stop-loss: Above $72,500 to ensure safety margin.

3. Risk management and position control

Position principles: Do not open more than 8%-10% of account funds per trade, especially in the current volatile market, to minimize leverage.

Dynamic adjustment strategy: Develop flexible plans to quickly adapt based on key economic data or on-chain activity changes, preventing misjudgment of market direction.

High-frequency trading caution: During periods of extremely low trading volume (such as Asian trading hours), reduce the number of swing trades and focus on larger moves during the more volatile European and American sessions.