Technical Analysis | BTC 4-Hour Bottom Divergence Appears, How Far Can the Rebound Go?

On April 3, BTC quickly rebounded from a low of $67,800 to above $69,500 after hitting the bottom. From a technical perspective, multiple signals are turning bullish.

Signal 1: 4-Hour MACD Bottom Divergence

Price made a new low (67,800), but the MACD histogram lows are higher than previous lows, forming a classic bottom divergence. Historically, after a 4-hour bottom divergence appears, there is about a 65% chance of a rebound within a week, with an average gain of 5-8%.

Signal 2: RSI Rebound from Oversold Zone

The 4-hour RSI once dropped to 32, approaching the oversold line (30). It then quickly rebounded to around 45. A rebound from the RSI oversold edge often indicates short-term selling exhaustion.

Signal 3: Volume Shrinks Then Expands

When falling to 67,800, volume significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure; during the rebound, volume modestly increased as buying interest entered.

Resistance Levels

· First Resistance: 70,500 (4-hour EMA50)
· Second Resistance: 72,000 (Previous high area)
· Third Resistance: 73,500 (Post-halving high)

Support Levels

· First Support: 68,000 (Round number)
· Second Support: 66,800 (Previous low)

Trading Suggestions

In the short term, consider a light long position in the 68,000-68,500 range, with a stop loss at 66,500 and a target of 72,000. If the rebound stalls at 70,500 with decreasing volume, take profits and exit the long position.
$BTC ‌
Technical outlook is bullish, but confirmation from news and fundamentals is necessary.

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