A highly accurate indicator:

The Bitcoin Bubble Index has indeed played a very good role in anchoring sentiment and the deviation from value.
Since 2022, every time the Bitcoin Bubble Index drops near 10, Bitcoin enters a bottoming zone.
This has not failed in the past four years, and the decline of the bubble index has gradually decreased as Bitcoin's market size has grown.
With deep participation from Wall Street funds, Bitcoin's liquidity and depth are no longer comparable to the past. The absolute deep pits caused by traditional "retail panic selling" are becoming less common.
From this perspective, Bitcoin starting with 6 has already reached the bottom of the bear market, with very limited downward space.
If the target in the next two years is $200,000, then starting with 5 and starting with 6 make almost no difference.
If the long-term goal is $200,000, then whether you buy at $50,000 or $60,000, the difference in overall return is greatly diluted. The former is a 300% increase, and the latter is a 233% increase. For large funds or spot holders, pursuing this potential cost optimization of a few percentage points and risking missing out on the entire bull market is extremely unprofitable in terms of risk-reward ratio.
In this "bottom zone of the bear market," spot traders can indeed relax, but for the derivatives market, this period is often the hardest to endure. The bottom does not mean a straight takeoff, but is accompanied by intense wide-range volatility and liquidity washout. The approximately 15% fluctuation between $50,000 and $60,000 is trivial for spot traders, but for derivatives markets (especially high-leverage traders on Perp DEX), it can trigger multiple long and short liquidations.
Therefore, the "bottom" in the larger cycle is often also the phase with the most frequent deleveraging in the derivatives market.
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