Just saw an interesting take from economist Henrik Zeberg that's worth paying attention to. He's making a pretty strong case that a recession is coming, and honestly the evidence he's pointing to is hard to ignore.

The core of his argument centers on something most people probably missed in the noise - the jobs data revisions. October's payroll numbers got hit hard in the revision, showing 173,000 job losses instead of the initially reported 105,000. November came in even softer at 56,000 new jobs. These aren't small adjustments. When you see back-to-back downward revisions like this, it signals the labor market is weaker than the headlines suggested.

But here's what really caught my attention. Zeberg is zeroing in on the 12-month moving average of job creation - a metric that historically has been incredibly reliable at predicting recessions. Since the 1970s, every single downturn has been preceded by this moving average dropping below a critical threshold. And according to his analysis, we've just breached that level.

What makes this significant is that even though the labor market today is technically much larger than in past cycles, the moving average has still fallen to recession-entry levels. That's the real warning sign here.

The December jobs report kind of reinforces this narrative. Employers added roughly 50,000 jobs, which avoided an outright contraction but was one of the weakest December readings outside of an actual recession in decades. Combined with October's steep losses and November's soft growth, the picture becomes pretty clear - we're looking at a labor market losing momentum, not stabilizing.

Zeberg has been consistently cautious on the economy for a while now, and he's been warning that investors should brace for a potential historic crash. The timing of when that materializes is the real question. Interestingly, before such a scenario plays out, he thinks several sectors including stocks and cryptocurrencies could still hit new record highs.

So the question everyone's asking now is whether a recession is coming or not. The labor data certainly seems to be suggesting it's worth taking seriously. Worth monitoring closely over the next few months.