Bitcoin's outlook for the second quarter of this year is concerning, with both technical and on-chain data under pressure

In Q1 2026, Bitcoin's performance was disappointing. Its current trading price is around $66,500, down nearly 50% from the peak of nearly $125,000 in October 2025.

Against the backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties weighing on risk assets, Bitcoin lacks key structural support, making its market outlook entering the second quarter particularly bleak, with no clear bullish catalysts.

From a technical perspective, the downtrend channel that has dominated Bitcoin's price since late 2025 remains in place. The 100-day moving average (around $77,000) and the 200-day moving average (around $85,000) continue to show a downward crossover trend.

Moreover, the previously critical support zone of $75,000–$80,000 has now turned into resistance, and multiple attempts in March to break through have failed.

Current support is around $60,000, a level that previously provided support during the February crash. If this level is broken decisively, Bitcoin risks falling toward the $50,000 region.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40, indicating the market is stabilizing but has not yet shown signs of a reversal. Therefore, a daily close above $75,000 remains the minimum requirement to reverse the overall trend.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to about 2.46 million BTC, hitting a new all-time low, with a particularly sharp decline over the past few weeks. Generally, a decrease in exchange reserves is seen as a bullish signal because it indicates reduced immediate sell-side supply.

However, despite the decline in exchange reserves, Bitcoin prices are also falling. This phenomenon suggests that while Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, no new demand is entering the market. Therefore, only new buyers entering the market can truly push prices higher.

In summary, Bitcoin faces severe challenges in the second quarter of this year. Market participants should focus on two key points: first, the price performance around the $60,000 support and $75,000 resistance levels; second, whether on-chain data shows signs of new demand. Only positive changes in these areas could reverse the downward trend.