Just recently at war, how did we suddenly fall in love? The Hormuz plot takes a major twist!

Since April, the market has been playing out a “Middle Eastern-style rollercoaster of emotions.”
A few days ago, there were concerns that the Strait of Hormuz might be completely blocked, with oil prices soaring and risk aversion at its peak; but then the plot reversed—Iran’s president signaled that the war could end, and Trump also hinted that the mission was accomplished, with the U.S. military possibly withdrawing in 2-3 weeks.
This move can be described as “from confrontation to ambiguity in just three days.”
The market’s reaction was even more direct:
Bitcoin rebounded, U.S. stocks strengthened, gold continued to hit new highs—a classic “risk + safe-haven assets rising together” phenomenon.

Why does this seemingly contradictory market behavior occur?
The essence is just one sentence:
👉 The market is betting on “the best outcome,” but it hasn’t fully believed it yet.
On one side, risk assets are recovering as tensions ease; on the other, long-term uncertainties remain, so funds haven’t completely exited gold.
Simply put:
Funds are betting on peace, but also guarding against a reversal.

The key points to watch next are:
1️⃣ Whether a substantial ceasefire agreement is reached
2️⃣ Whether Hormuz returns to fully safe passage

If these two points materialize—
Risk assets could usher in a real “emotional bull market.”
But if it’s just “peace on paper”—
It’s very likely a sophisticated trap to lure more buyers.

📌 Comment section hook:
Do you think this is a “true ceasefire rally,” or a “false reversal to trap buyers”? Bull or bear? #四月行情预测