Trump delivered a nationwide speech on the Iran situation at 9:00 AM Beijing time today (April 2nd). The core message is that the United States may end its military operations against Iran within 2-3 weeks. The market generally interprets "the war is over" as a major positive signal.

The market views Bitcoin and Ethereum as "risk assets." The end of the war means reduced geopolitical uncertainty and a rebound in risk appetite, leading funds to flow from safe-haven assets into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk sectors. This directly drove a price rebound. Before the speech, Bitcoin broke through $68,000, and Ethereum surpassed $2,100. Institutional funds also show signs of returning; in March, the US Bitcoin ETF ended four consecutive months of net outflows and turned into a net inflow of $1.2 billion.

However, the market may have already priced in some of these positives. Data shows that investors are still selling into the rebound ("silent distribution"), and on-chain data suggests that the true "market bottom" may not yet be confirmed—currently, the price is still 21% above the network's average cost basis, meaning most people are still in profit. Historically, major bottoms often require prices to fall below the cost basis.

If oil prices, although retreating, remain high, persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, which would exert medium-term pressure on cryptocurrency prices.

The roles of gold and silver are relatively complex and are no longer purely safe-haven assets. The current rise is mainly driven by the "dollar decline" and "interest rate cut expectations."