April has started, and the big coin didn't drop to the 5-figure range as I predicted in March—that forecast was wrong.

In April, there will be quite a show. I'm firmly convinced that the US will engage with Iran on a grand scale, very impressive theatrics, but only theatrics with minimal real impact.

Rational analysis gives us three scenarios:
1. The US directly intervenes, which is what I firmly believe will happen—fight first, then negotiate.
2. Trump directly backs off. From initially demanding openness or threatening to attack, to now being willing to talk without openness, there's a possibility that ultimately Trump just wants to make America great again. I'm an oil-exporting nation, rising oil prices are good for us. To achieve your goals, I propose everyone go to the Strait of Hormuz together, but if you won't go, then I won't push either. Let oil prices rise, and we'll make a fortune. We withdraw. The Gulf monarchies can compensate Iran a bit and compensate the US military bases a bit, and we call it even. 3. The US withdraws, fine—little Israel, you're on your own. But little Israel can't hold up alone, so it backs down too.

Honestly, trading is something that requires learning a tremendous amount. Many people think trading is simple—buy and sell, done. But to do it well, your knowledge base needs to be comprehensive. Both sides are right because the real economy and finance are inherently connected, but the transmission chain is too long, often making us forget the corresponding real economy or concrete details, leading to indifference. We only focus on price movements.

If Trump hypes up the big coin, it could potentially go to 692-696, and in extreme cases near 706. Support levels are at 672, 661, and 655.