Xiao Qing Analysis:

The current Middle East conflict is showing a significant escalation. The US-Israel coalition has carried out precise strikes on infrastructure such as power plants and steel factories in the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, while the Houthis have launched missiles into Israel, attempting to open a second front. Meanwhile, US Marine Corps reinforcements are arriving in the Middle East, and there are reports that a quick resolution plan to end ground combat within weeks has entered the contingency plans. The Iranian parliament speaker has issued a stern warning: Iran's armed forces are prepared to respond to a US ground invasion and will impose "punishments" on its regional allies.
However, there are also signs of easing in the situation. On one hand, officials from Thailand and Malaysia have announced that agreements have been reached with Iran to ensure the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, the US Vice President publicly stated that "there is no intention to stay in Iran long-term and will withdraw as soon as possible." These developments indicate that the Middle East situation remains highly uncertain.
Domestically in the US, pressure on the current government continues to rise. Large-scale protests against the US Middle East policy have erupted nationwide, with participation exceeding 9 million people. Polls also show that the approval rating of the current president has fallen to 36%, the lowest since he returned to the White House. Analysts believe that the US has made two key misjudgments in this military operation: first, underestimating the resilience of the Iranian regime, comparing it to "the next Venezuela"; second, overestimating its own deterrence effect, believing Iran would collapse quickly. These misjudgments are putting the US into a strategic disadvantage—the window for ending the conflict is no longer entirely in US control.
Despite the rising domestic opposition and the Vice President's public dissent, based on past decision-making patterns, if US policymakers judge that the prospects for the midterm elections are bleak, they might adopt a "do-or-die" strategy, launching a large-scale ground invasion to seek a political turnaround. Therefore, the next one to two weeks require heightened vigilance for a full escalation of the conflict.
Possible outcomes include: first, the US successfully controls key islands and straits and ultimately overthrows the Iranian regime; second, the US captures the islands but faces a prolonged missile siege on Iranian cities, leading to a protracted conflict; third, the US fails to seize the islands and is forced to withdraw from the Middle East in disgrace. Additionally, there is a low-probability scenario: the US feints with a diversionary attack on islands while secretly striking and seizing raw materials inside Iran’s nuclear facilities, then quickly withdrawing and declaring victory.
For the cryptocurrency market (represented by Bitcoin), after the US stock market plummeted last Thursday, it showed an independent trend on Friday; whether Bitcoin can again decouple from US stocks next week remains to be seen 👀.
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